Do you fear a crash similar to 2001?

[earlyretirement]

Locals don't like the IMF for a large part because the IMF is blatantly obvious what a mess Argentina is and systemic change is necessary if their country has ANY shot of changing. So naturally they recommend raising prices and cutting subsidies. But the harsh reality is that Macri (or any other President) would have to do that with or without the IMF. That's just a harsh fact.

Again, this isn't even a Pro or Against Macri conversation. This is a basic common sense economics issue. I know from reading many forums (including this one) that many people have never taken an economics class. If someone is really asking me how CFK lied about inflation, then I am 100% sure they don't understand very basic elements of economics.

Argentina is fundamentally flawed in many, many, many ways that the typical ex-pat that is just living in Buenos Aires doesn't really understand.
It's almost impossible to recover from economic populism. Argentina has severe structural flaws that are almost impossible to fix. They will continue to stunt growth, productivity and competitiveness.

Now that things have snowballed so quickly they completely blame Macri but as I pointed out earlier, up until things shifted Macri wasn't perceived to be doing all that bad. Now of course he isn't popular and no way he will win re-election or probably won't even finish his term.

He also did some things right. Macri freed the exchange rate, eliminated capital controls & reduced agricultural export taxes. He rebuilt the statistics agency, gave the Central Bank back its autonomy and opened up infrastructure projects to private investment. He began to tackle the gaping budget deficit by raising utility prices (difficult for locals but necessary), re-calculating pension benefits & resolving a protracted dispute over financial transfers to the provinces.

All of these market-affirming steps were gradual slowly reducing distortions of quotas, subsidies and other taxes, and cutting or re-orienting government spending. And they were complemented by millions more in social assistance and by billions more in public investments.

The economy did bounce back. By the second half of 2017 construction was flourishing and manufacturing recovering. Inflation finally started to decline up until this latest mess. Again, anyone trying to claim that TRUE inflation wasn't wickedly high under CFK is severely deluded.

Macri had to make some unpopular but necessary decisions. Like cut public sector employment. Do you all realize that under CFK public sector employment, grew to represent nearly 1 in 3 jobs! (Many of them fake where no one was doing anything).

So yeah the guy has made mistakes but he also did a few things right too. Let's get the record straight and factual. I'm not even a big Macri supporter. Let's just say I had high hopes for him. But I can reiterate he is much better than CFK. If anyone is trying to argue inflation wasn't high under her is not worth responding to.

I'm not disputing that many of Macri's targets were wishful thinking because as soon as I hard them coming out I knew there was NO way it could happen. I hope I don't come across as a Macri supporter because I'm not. But I am someone that deals in reality and many of you seem to think that some how things would be mysteriously better with someone else. Things would be bad no matter who was in office. That's the almost impossible task of being President of a country like Argentina.

So yeah I get it. You're all pissed (Heck, so am I as I truly love Argentina). Things are a mess there and you blame Macri as you say it's all his fault. But I deal in reality and Argentina was screwed no matter who was President.

I don't want to argue with you Wrangler or endlessly go back and forth. I can promise you I'm a level headed person that is very objective, ethical and honest. We can say we agree to disagree. Argentina is a very complicated country and most people won't agree on everything. There are no easy solutions which I think we can both agree on.

 

[earlyretirement]

PS. Just for fun. You can Google, "How did Kirchner lie about inflation" and there are 205,000 results.

 

[wrangler]

Locals don't like the IMF for a large part because the IMF is blatantly obvious what a mess Argentina is and systemic change is necessary if their country has ANY shot of changing. So naturally they recommend raising prices and cutting subsidies. But the harsh reality is that Macri (or any other President) would have to do that with or without the IMF. That's just a harsh fact.

Again, this isn't even a Pro or Against Macri conversation. This is a basic common sense economics issue. I know from reading many forums (including this one) that many people have never taken an economics class.

Argentina is fundamentally flawed in many, many, many ways that the typical ex-pat that is just living in Buenos Aires doesn't really understand.
It's almost impossible to recover from economic populism. Argentina has severe structural flaws that are almost impossible to fix. They will continue to stunt growth, productivity and competitiveness.

Now that things have snowballed so quickly they completely blame Macri but as I pointed out earlier, up until things shifted Macri wasn't perceived to be doing all bad.

He also did some things right. Macri freed the exchange rate, eliminated capital controls & reduced agricultural export taxes. He rebuilt the statistics agency, gave the Central Bank back its autonomy and opened up infrastructure projects to private investment. He began to tackle the gaping budget deficit by raising utility prices (difficult for locals but necessary), re-calculating pension benefits & resolving a protracted dispute over financial transfers to the provinces.

All of these market-affirming steps were gradual slowly reducing distortions of quotas, subsidies and other taxes, and cutting or re-orienting government spending. And they were complemented by millions more in social assistance and by billions more in public investments.

The economy bounced back. By the second half of 2017 construction was flourishing and manufacturing recovering. Inflation finally started to decline.

Macri had to make some unpopular but necessary things. Like cut public sector employment. Do you all realize that under CFK public sector employment, grew to represent nearly 1 in 3 jobs! (Many of them fake where no one was doing anything).

So yeah the guy has made mistakes but he also did a few things right too. Let's get the record straight and factual. I'm not even a big Macri supporter. Let's just say I had high hopes for him. But I can reiterate he is much better than CFK. If anyone is trying to argue inflation wasn't high under her is not worth responding to.

I'm not disputing that many of Macri's targets were wishful thinking because as soon as I hard them coming out I knew there was NO way it could happen.

If Argentina is fundamentally flawed then why did Macri make all of the campaign promises and economic projections that he knew good and well would not come true?

Inflation was not as high with CFK as it is with Macri, and you failed to answer my question as to do you think that Macri was being genuine when he promised infrastructure investments where coming to Argentina, or is he just plain stupid like his father claims?

Any actions he took to try to increase exports did not work, because exports and overall production is down 2.7% and will continue to slow for at least 6 months and maybe longer.

Do you think it was necessary for Macri to spend tens of thousands of millions of dollars in construction projects at a time where Argentina was cash strapped? Do you consider this wise? What about the burning of ten thousand million dollars by sturnzennger to try to control the dollar, of which the dollar just kept going up anyhow?

Most economist say that Argentina DID NOT need to go to the IMF. It seems to me that you lack the knowledge of exactly how the Argentine economic engine works. Most Economists national and international are highly critical of Macri. If you want more inside, I would highly recommend that you read the financial times, because just like Argentine economist are critical of Macri, so are international ones. He just doesn't have a clue.

Let me ask you this. What qualifies Macri to be president of this country other than he won by 1% of the vote? He knows zero about running a country and I think he has demonstrated this to the world. I suppose because he did well in Boca Juniors that everyone thought he would do well as a president, but boy were they wrong.

 

[wrangler]

PS. Just for fun. You can Google, "How did Kirchner lie about inflation" and there are 205,000 results.

The Kirchner's have been gone for three years. When will Macri start taking responsibility for this country? He said a year ago this September that he wants to be judged, yet he has gone back on his word and refuses to take any blame, and is still pointing fingers at others.

 

[earlyretirement]

The Kirchner's have been gone for three years. When will Macri start taking responsibility for this country? He said a year ago this September that he wants to be judged, yet he has gone back on his word and refuses to take any blame, and is still pointing fingers at others.

I'm not arguing with you that Macri as president has to be responsible. Definitely. And you mistake that I'm saying he is doing a good job. False. I'm just saying that he didn't do everything wrong as some portray. I'm not disputing or trying to argue that he made impossible promises that he couldn't keep. Yes, I would agree with you there he is an IDIOT for making those promises he couldn't keep. I'm not saying he personally has a clue. But many of the decisions (good and bad) are not made by him but by Advisors. Some of the good decisions probably weren't his either. I agree with you wranger that he made a LOT of bad decisions so no argument there. But come on man. Asking me for examples how CFK lied about inflation? LOL. You have to even laugh at yourself for that question. Be honest! LOL.

And you can't realistically ask what qualifies ANYONE to be President. Just look at the USA. The most important and powerful country in the world. We have the biggest IDIOT for President with NO qualifications. Yeah, idiots elected him with no good sense. That isn't something that is reserved for Argentina. LOL. Americans electing Trump goes to show you that NOTHING qualifies anyone to become President.

Absolutely I'm NOT arguing with you that he is the Captain of the ship. I'm just trying to say that being the captain of the "Titanic" is still going to sink at the end of the movie. It doesn't matter how skilled that Captain is. A sinking ship is still a sinking ship.....

 

[wrangler]

I'm not arguing with you that Macri as president has to be responsible. Definitely. And you mistake that I'm saying he is doing a good job. False. I'm just saying that he didn't do everything wrong as some portray. I'm not disputing or trying to argue that he made impossible promises that he couldn't keep. Yes, I would agree with you there he is an IDIOT for making those promises he couldn't keep. I'm not saying he personally has a clue. But many of the decisions (good and bad) are not made by him but by Advisors. Some of the good decisions probably weren't his either. I agree with you wranger that he made a LOT of bad decisions so no argument there.


And you can't realistically ask what qualifies ANYONE to be President. Just look at the USA. The most important and powerful country in the world. We have the biggest IDIOT for President with NO qualifications. Yeah, idiots elected him with no good sense. That isn't something that is reserved for Argentina. LOL.

Absolutely I'm NOT arguing with you that he is the Captain of the ship. I'm just trying to say that being the captain of the "Titanic" is still going to sink at the end of the movie. It doesn't matter how skilled that Captain is. A sinking ship is still a sinking ship.....

Come November 2019, I see no reason to continue to vote for Cambiemos. I and many others are not impressed with what has been achieved for the last three years. I am voting Peronist in the next election.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Yes, he totally failed but as sergio mentioned, he was the best hope. Do you really think if anyone else was elected that Argentina would mysteriously be in good shape today? He was too optimistic from the get go. I don't think any reasonable people believed the projections that he said. I doubt Argentina will ever get inflation below 10% a year or at least not anytime soon.

Opinions are like as*sholes. Everyone has them. Some say CFK was the lesser of the two evils. I totally disagree. What she did was totally illegal. Stealing millions upon million of dollars from the citizens of Argentina (who knows what the final tab is how much she stole for her family and her cronies). Threatening jail to economists for reporting true inflation figures. Macri is a failure. True. But you can't compare what CFK did to what Macri did.

Just do simple logic of what CFK's net worth was when her husband and her came into office. Then go back and look at their salaries and also look each year how much real estate they started buying up each year since they came into office.

Macri made a LOT of mistakes but don't delude yourself into thinking that any other Presidential candidate would have magically turned things around for Argentina. I repeat and I say it again, Argentina will ALWAYS go through these crazy unstable periods because the system is broken there. Sure they can have some stable periods but over the long haul you're going to most likely see crises like this.

You are naive. Macri made mistakes? He was always a criminal why do you imagine that suddently he is the hope?

She stole money? Where is it? Because every time they investigate her, Macri’s dirty money is found.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Locals don't like the IMF for a large part because the IMF is blatantly obvious what a mess Argentina is and systemic change is necessary if their country has ANY shot of changing. So naturally they recommend raising prices and cutting subsidies. But the harsh reality is that Macri (or any other President) would have to do that with or without the IMF. That's just a harsh fact.

Again, this isn't even a Pro or Against Macri conversation. This is a basic common sense economics issue. I know from reading many forums (including this one) that many people have never taken an economics class. If someone is really asking me how CFK lied about inflation, then I am 100% sure they don't understand very basic elements of economics.

Argentina is fundamentally flawed in many, many, many ways that the typical ex-pat that is just living in Buenos Aires doesn't really understand.
It's almost impossible to recover from economic populism. Argentina has severe structural flaws that are almost impossible to fix. They will continue to stunt growth, productivity and competitiveness.

Now that things have snowballed so quickly they completely blame Macri but as I pointed out earlier, up until things shifted Macri wasn't perceived to be doing all that bad. Now of course he isn't popular and no way he will win re-election or probably won't even finish his term.

He also did some things right. Macri freed the exchange rate, eliminated capital controls & reduced agricultural export taxes. He rebuilt the statistics agency, gave the Central Bank back its autonomy and opened up infrastructure projects to private investment. He began to tackle the gaping budget deficit by raising utility prices (difficult for locals but necessary), re-calculating pension benefits & resolving a protracted dispute over financial transfers to the provinces.

All of these market-affirming steps were gradual slowly reducing distortions of quotas, subsidies and other taxes, and cutting or re-orienting government spending. And they were complemented by millions more in social assistance and by billions more in public investments.

The economy did bounce back. By the second half of 2017 construction was flourishing and manufacturing recovering. Inflation finally started to decline up until this latest mess. Again, anyone trying to claim that TRUE inflation wasn't wickedly high under CFK is severely deluded.

Macri had to make some unpopular but necessary decisions. Like cut public sector employment. Do you all realize that under CFK public sector employment, grew to represent nearly 1 in 3 jobs! (Many of them fake where no one was doing anything).

So yeah the guy has made mistakes but he also did a few things right too. Let's get the record straight and factual. I'm not even a big Macri supporter. Let's just say I had high hopes for him. But I can reiterate he is much better than CFK. If anyone is trying to argue inflation wasn't high under her is not worth responding to.

I'm not disputing that many of Macri's targets were wishful thinking because as soon as I hard them coming out I knew there was NO way it could happen. I hope I don't come across as a Macri supporter because I'm not. But I am someone that deals in reality and many of you seem to think that some how things would be mysteriously better with someone else. Things would be bad no matter who was in office. That's the almost impossible task of being President of a country like Argentina.

So yeah I get it. You're all pissed (Heck, so am I as I truly love Argentina). Things are a mess there and you blame Macri as you say it's all his fault. But I deal in reality and Argentina was screwed no matter who was President.

I don't want to argue with you Wrangler or endlessly go back and forth. I can promise you I'm a level headed person that is very objective, ethical and honest. We can say we agree to disagree. Argentina is a very complicated country and most people won't agree on everything. There are no easy solutions which I think we can both agree on.

She lied about inflation because there were bond attached to inflation, so, she saved money.

Macri didn’t cut the expendichures in the State, he created more fiendly bureaucracy very well paid.

If you analize what he is doing, he is using the Apartheid as the model to be copied.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Come November 2019, I see no reason to continue to vote for Cambiemos. I and many others are not impressed with what has been achieved for the last three years. I am voting Peronist in the next election.

Peronistas with 1.5% of the votes of with chances to win?

 

[wrangler]

Peronistas with 1.5% of the votes of with chances to win?

It's either Cambiemos or Peronists. We have already seen what cambiemos is, and the Peronist party has always been able to recover.