Do you fear a crash similar to 2001?

[Stantucker]

And to try to determine what the country has to do to get back on track for good, you have to discuss all the issues, the past and the present, not just one or the other.

 

[perry]

You put words into people's mouths that were never there because of your rabid, fanatical hatred of Macri. If anyone tries to take a broader view of the situation and not just focus on one thing (the Ks' legacy) or the other (Macri's failures), they are relentlessly defending Macri. If the economy does not improve, I agree, Macri has to go. But the more important issue for me is how the country is going to get back on track for good, regardless of who's in power.

Stantucker you seem like an intelligent man but for the life of me I do not understand that you do not take your blinkers off . Do you ever leave the bubble of Recoleta and see how people really live?
I know this country like the back of my hand from top to bottom and have never seen such negative change in just three years and this was under Macris watch . He is responsible , he took on the debt, he mismanaged the money, he did not implement one policy to stimulate small business and create employment , he increased costs of basic services that per capita are amongst the highest in the world for what people earn here .He just took on more and more debt and used that debt for financial gambling as to benefit a small elite class . How come the debt was not used to stimulate small business and employment ? He spent some money on window dressing on public parks and avenues in Buenos Aires while the homeless living on mattresses on many street corners of the city just grows and grows.

In a few years I believe this period of Argentinas history will go down as prime reading material as a textbook example of financial terrorism . I have never seen such blatant oportunism and dishonesty in my life and it saddens me greatly what is happening here. For those expats who earn dollars and have no businesses here maybe you might feel happy at the moment as life is cheaper but hold back on your glee as this can turn on your head as soon as the peso reaches 60 which it will the seething resentment under the surface will turn into civil disobedience and more . We are heading in Venezuelas direction and you Stantucker and others are living in denial .

 

[Stantucker]

Stantucker you seem like an intelligent man but for the life of me I do not understand that you do not take your blinkers off . Do you ever leave the bubble of Recoleta and see how people really live?
I know this country like the back of my hand from top to bottom and have never seen such negative change in just three years and this was under Macris watch . He is responsible , he took on the debt, he mismanaged the money, he did not implement one policy to stimulate small business and create employment , he increased costs of basic services that per capita are amongst the highest in the world for what people earn here .He just took on more and more debt and used that debt for financial gambling as to benefit a small elite class . How come the debt was not used to stimulate small business and employment ? He spent some money on window dressing on public parks and avenues in Buenos Aires while the homeless living on mattresses on many street corners of the city just grows and grows.

In a few years I believe this period of Argentinas history will go down as prime reading material as a textbook example of financial terrorism . I have never seen such blatant oportunism and dishonesty in my life and it saddens me greatly what is happening here. For those expats who earn dollars and have no businesses here maybe you might feel happy at the moment as life is cheaper but hold back on your glee as this can turn on your head soon as soon as the peso reaches below 60 which it will the seething resentment under the surface will turn into civil disobedience and more . We are heading in Venezuelas direction I fear and you Stantucker and others are living in denial .

Perry, you prove my point exactly. For you and Wrangler, if anyone mentions anything other than the disastrous economic policy of Macri, they are relentless Macri supporters, who need to take their blinders off. I see the reality here very clearly and I know it's going to get even worse. And I agree with a lot of your assessment of Macri's failures, but we are not just talking about the present, we are also talking about the future, about what needs to be done to save a ship that has been sinking for a long time, not just during Macri's gov't. But again, because I dare to mention anything other than the M man's failures, I am out of touch.

 

[earlyretirement]

Yes, they have always been able to recover after they have built that bonfire, watched it burn for their successors, and then swept in to be the heroes. Think of the situation the country was in at the end of menemismo. Of course, De la Rua just added fuel to the flames as london2baires pointed out. Once the bonfire became incontrolable, the peronist stepped back in and "recovered." It's easy to recover after a mega devaluation and the subsequent budget surplus that Kirchner started with, and then record crops. But what did we end up at the end of Cristina's terms, a budget deficit, a economy that hadn't grown in five years and 30% poverty, among many other problems. I see the same cycle, dynamic with Macri. And no one is arguing that Macri hasn't made colossal mistakes.

As Earlyretirement points out, it's so easy to Monday morning quaterback now. Everyone is saying that Macri should have set down his first day in office and called for a sort of Pacto de la Moncola, saying we're essentially broke and if we don't make severe structurally changes, this ship is going to sink, regardless. I wish he had . But with all the mafias and special interests in this country that just want to protect their piece of the pie, and the peronists being so populists, can anyone imagine that conversation going anywhere? I can't. The number of national work stoppages and just plain chaos would have made what's happened recently look like child's play.

And so the peronists take over (and I don't see them making those structural changes because those are not popular), and we end up with the same sort of situation we were end at the Cristina's terms, is that really "recovery?"

Excellent post Stanucker. The thing that you have to be able to do (no matter which political party you support) you have to be objective and look at facts. As mentioned, Macri made a lot of mistakes but he did make some ballsy decisions. It would have been impossible as you mentioned to get meaningful changes with all the various groups as you mentioned. This is why even when he was elected and started making these rosy promises I immediately told my friends that he probably will never even finish his term. The projections were just not realistic.

Argentina is an interesting country but one that no matter who is in office, the system is set up so that long-term systemic changes are almost impossible to implement. We will most likely never see it in our lifetimes. But I'd at least during my lifetime like to see some meaningful long-term changes so that my kids who are Argentines see systemic change.

I don't think ANYONE is saying that tougher times are ahead for Argentina. They most likely are coming but no way will things get like Venezuela so I'm not worried about that. People talk about blinders and fervent Maci supporters. Frankly I don't see many posts at all that are big Macri supporters. I think the majority go something like this. " I voted for him, I had high hopes for the guy. The guy made a lot of promises and projections that sounded great. He made a lot of mistakes and also a lot of bad luck as a lot of uncontrollable things happened. He has been a monumental disappointment".

But again. Many people talk about how their candidate would have done better. Or talk about what steps can be taken to turn around things for the long term and fix Argentina so that crashes won't happen every 10-15 years. They can't because it's almost impossible with the way Argentina is set up for these changes. It can't be done quickly.

I don't think it's productive to keep arguing back and forth about CFK or Macri. I think it's productive to share information and ideas about what is going on. How it affects locals. Measuring the success or failures of policies in place. Sharing information about exchange rates, things going on locally and examples of how things are getting better/worse.

 

[Stantucker]

Excellent post Stanucker. The thing that you have to be able to do (no matter which political party you support) you have to be objective and look at facts. As mentioned, Macri made a lot of mistakes but he did make some ballsy decisions. It would have been impossible as you mentioned to get meaningful changes with all the various groups as you mentioned. This is why even when he was elected and started making these rosy promises I immediately told my friends that he probably will never even finish his term. The projections were just not realistic.

Argentina is an interesting country but one that no matter who is in office, the system is set up so that long-term systemic changes are almost impossible to implement. We will most likely never see it in our lifetimes.

Earlyretirement, Chile made those structural reforms years ago and they have a much more stable economy, one that you can depend on. Last night on La Nacion PM they gave the statistic that among people of 20 - 24 years of age, only 53% of Argentines have completed their secondary education, while in Chile that number is 81%. Quite a difference. I would attribute most of that difference to less poverty and less populism there. And that statistic is not the sole result of two years of Macrismo. They also said that in Chile 24% of those who have made it big have come from poverty, whereas the number here is really small in Argentina; almost no one comes from the lower classes here and changes their station in life. The power and money have stayed in the hands of the same folks in Argentina, even during peronist gov'ts. Even at the of Peron's 10 years, none of that had changed. And he had ten years to make significant changes. I agree we may not see those changes in our lifetime.

 

[perry]

Earlyretirement, Chile made those structural reforms years ago and they have a much more stable economy, one that you can depend on. Last night on La Nacion PM they gave the statistic that among people of 20 - 24 years of age, only 53% of Argentines have completed their secondary education, while in Chile that number is 81%. Quite a difference. I would attribute most of that difference to less poverty and less populism there. And that statistic is not the sole result of two years of Macrismo. They also said that in Chile 24% of those who have made it big have come from poverty, whereas the number here is really small in Argentina; almost no one comes from the lower classes here and changes their station in life. The power and money have stayed in the hands of the same folks in Argentina, even during peronist gov'ts. Even at the of Peron's 10 years, none of that had changed. And he had ten years to make significant changes. I agree we may not see those changes in our lifetime.

I agree with you Stantucker that the level of education in Argentina is deplorable and Chile is superior . You mentioned in your last sentence that in Perons 10 years nothing had changed please advise me what period are you referring to?

 

[earlyretirement]

Earlyretirement, Chile made those structural reforms years ago and they have a much more stable economy, one that you can depend on. Last night on La Nacion PM they gave the statistic that among people of 20 - 24 years of age, only 53% of Argentines have completed their secondary education, while in Chile that number is 81%. Quite a difference. I would attribute most of that difference to less poverty and less populism there. They also said that in Chile 24% of those who have made it big have come from poverty, whereas the number here is really small in Argentina; almost no one comes from the lower classes here and changes their station in life. The power and money have stayed in the hands of the same folks in Argentina, even during peronist gov'ts. Even at the of Peron's 10 years, none of that had changed. And he had ten years to make significant changes. I agree we may not see those changes in our lifetime.

Absolutely Stantucker. Chile is a great example. Like Argentina they have a really painful (and bloody) past. They are the model in South America now. I mentioned it a few times but Argentina needs a complete overhaul in many areas which would take a long time and probably almost impossible with all the special interest groups. It would be painful at first but in the long run it would get things more efficient.

In Argentina since the system is broken and tax laws don't make sense and there is so much inefficiency and corruption, most people don't want to do anything in white. It's literally almost impossible to do 100% in white even if you wanted to. Argentines think for the short-term while most other countries including/especially Chile think for the long-term. That's why the education statistics are so high compared to Argentina where many think only of today's hustle.

People don't invest in start-ups for the most part in Argentina because they only think short-term. On the flip side, Chile has a very vibrant start-up ecosystem.

I hope someday Argentina does have systemic change but I just don't see it. Most locals only think short-term and incapable of thinking later down the road. They are all fighting for the best they can do now and even when the economy is better it seems like they are in constant "survival mode". No matter which president comes next, no matter what ideas they have. Long term change is tough.

Also, whoever is in office has to have a lot of luck on their side as well as many factors for Argentina's financial health have external factors as well. Remember, no matter which side you support and even if we disagree with some things. In the end, we are all on this forum because we truly love Argentina. Think about it. We're posting tons and tons on a message board because we are that passionate about Argentina, a place that many of us call "home". So in the end we have more in common than we'd care to admit.

 

[Stantucker]

I agree with you Stantucker that the level of education in Argentina is deplorable and Chile is superior . You mentioned in your last sentence that in Perons 10 years nothing had changed please advise me what period are you referring to?

I'm talking about 1945-1955. And that assessment comes from Argentine historians, not me. I am not saying nothing changed during Peron's first 10 years, but the possessors of real power and wealth did not.

 

[Stantucker]

Stantucker you seem like an intelligent man but for the life of me I do not understand that you do not take your blinkers off . Do you ever leave the bubble of Recoleta and see how people really live?
I know this country like the back of my hand from top to bottom and have never seen such negative change in just three years and this was under Macris watch . He is responsible , he took on the debt, he mismanaged the money, he did not implement one policy to stimulate small business and create employment , he increased costs of basic services that per capita are amongst the highest in the world for what people earn here .He just took on more and more debt and used that debt for financial gambling as to benefit a small elite class . How come the debt was not used to stimulate small business and employment ? He spent some money on window dressing on public parks and avenues in Buenos Aires while the homeless living on mattresses on many street corners of the city just grows and grows.

In a few years I believe this period of Argentinas history will go down as prime reading material as a textbook example of financial terrorism . I have never seen such blatant oportunism and dishonesty in my life and it saddens me greatly what is happening here. For those expats who earn dollars and have no businesses here maybe you might feel happy at the moment as life is cheaper but hold back on your glee as this can turn on your head as soon as the peso reaches 60 which it will the seething resentment under the surface will turn into civil disobedience and more . We are heading in Venezuelas direction and you Stantucker and others are living in denial .

Perry, in your fanaticism I wouldn't be assuming or even suggesting that because of people's zip code they are out of touch with reality or they are happy when they benefit but others suffer (for example, when the dollar goes up). I have very good Argentine friends and I suffer with them when the pesos losses value. Watch the low blows, you are better than that.

 

[perry]

Perry, in your fanaticism I wouldn't be assuming or even suggesting that because of people's zip code they are out of touch with reality or they are happy when they benefit but others suffer (for example, when the dollar goes up). I have very good Argentine friends and I suffer with them when the pesos losses value. Watch the low blows, you are better than that.

Fanatic is a laughable term to describe me as I am a pure capitalist and deplore any system that enslaves people be it communism or savage capitalism . As you can see in my post I complemented you on your intellectual abilities but I definetely believe you are out of touch with reality . The truth is most expats do not understand the real Argentina as they live in a exclusive bubble that maybe only 5% of people here touch .

On this forum I have been called many things but I take it on the nose . I am a very moderate person in my political beliefs and to be called a fanatic or a kirchnerista spat out by others like one is a raving communist is laughable . I grew up in a upple middle class greek cypriot home and my background was one of work , sacrifice ,and success. My own mother who is 84 does not receive a pension due to her declaring her full assets and earnings. She instilled in me good values that I carry in my heart today . I do not believe in government handouts for those who do not work . I believe though in government assistance for those who wish to work in running their own business with low interest loans and tax concessions,

The reality Stantucker for those who lived here between 2004 to 2011 there was a economic boom in Argentina unparrelled in the western world . This was not a artificial boom created by a bubble but one created by good economic policies at that time and low costs that allowed many to start up a business . Puerto Madero came up from swamplands and now it is one of the most glorious neighbourhoods of Latin America . That happened under the evil kirchners!! The economic boom transformed the city from Palermo ,Caballito , and Mataderos .

There was close to 10% economic growth for many years from 2004 to 2011 . I will always remember that period and compare then to this period of economic oblivion , stagnation, hyperinflation, and massive devaluation .