Do you fear a crash similar to 2001?

[Ceviche]

Thanks for sharing perry.

 

[PoorSoul]

Almost all of my expat friends are moving. Most to the US. Some to Europe. Even my Argentina friends are moving. Already one has moved to US. And 2 more have a move planned.

This is how these "bad times" devolve into really bad scenerios. When things get back there is a feedback look where both capital and skilled people flee. The only ones remaining are those who need government assistance. So, the tax base is less and the dependency ratio is higher. It makes it harder and harder to recover.

 

[StevePalermo]

Well, not worse than M supporters who still argue about him like the last hope for the Republic even he lied in everything and it is clear that he is a criminal and corrupt.

I was citing the K supporters who cannot accept that she is anything but perfect. I would imagine that you would agree with me that they are totally deluded, unless you think that a politician can be perfect. And I know plenty of Macri supporters, but without exception they accept his shortcomings and failures. That is the difference.

 

[jeff1234]

Almost all of my expat friends are moving. Most to the US. Some to Europe. Even my Argentina friends are moving. Already one has moved to US. And 2 more have a move planned.

This is how these "bad times" devolve into really bad scenerios. When things get back there is a feedback look where both capital and skilled people flee. The only ones remaining are those who need government assistance. So, the tax base is less and the dependency ratio is higher. It makes it harder and harder to recover.

When I lived in Florida 10 years ago I saw many professional, educated Venezuelan arrive. Same scenario as you describe with one big difference. Left behind were those dependent on the government and the kleptocrats.

 

[Phatbuddha]

Fanatic is a laughable term to describe me as I am a pure capitalist and deplore any system that enslaves people be it communism or savage capitalism . As you can see in my post I complemented you on your intellectual abilities but I definetely believe you are out of touch with reality . The truth is most expats do not understand the real Argentina as they live in a exclusive bubble that maybe only 5% of people here touch .

On this forum I have been called many things but I take it on the nose . I am a very moderate person in my political beliefs and to be called a fanatic or a kirchnerista spat out by others like one is a raving communist is laughable . I grew up in a upple middle class greek cypriot home and my background was one of work , sacrifice ,and success. My own mother who is 84 does not receive a pension due to her declaring her full assets and earnings. She instilled in me good values that I carry in my heart today . I do not believe in government handouts for those who do not work . I believe though in government assistance for those who wish to work in running their own business with low interest loans and tax concessions,

The reality Stantucker for those who lived here between 2004 to 2011 there was a economic boom in Argentina unparrelled in the western world . This was not a artificial boom created by a bubble but one created by good economic policies at that time and low costs that allowed many to start up a business . Puerto Madero came up from swamplands and now it is one of the most glorious neighbourhoods of Latin America . That happened under the evil kirchners!! The economic boom transformed the city from Palermo ,Caballito , and Mataderos .

There was close to 10% economic growth for many years from 2004 to 2011 . I will always remember that period and compare then to this period of economic oblivion , stagnation, hyperinflation, and massive devaluation .

After the crash of epic proportions in 2001 and you could basically buy property here for peanuts - it presented a feeding frenzy in the property markets and construction went into overdrive creating a huge bubble - along with the BLUE DOLLAR
Tourism was booming and Argentina was a very attractive place to be - This had zero to do with “ good economic policies “ this is ridiculous to entertain this idea- property prices rose astronomically and within 5 years a lot of people were sitting on big property profits- this had nothing whatsoever to do with Kirchners policies-

 

[Phatbuddha]

One thing that is overlooked here is that Argentina is unique in the way that most people here own their property outright - so in a way it is based on a debt free model - and guess what ? - the government hate this ! They don’t want this - inflation is the secret tax of the government- start to join the dots and see the real picture

 

[Phatbuddha]

Did you know Venezuela started OPEC ? True story -

 

[Phatbuddha]

Do you fear a crash similar to 2001 ?
Answer : No - The people are better prepared this time around .

So where is this heading ?
Answer : A debt based system.

The peso has been ordered to float - the $57b loan is a buffer for the daily running of the economy- until the Peso
Resets to its true value - maybe 1-50 , 1-75 - ( time will tell )
Then what ?
Answer : Then and only then will the “ investors” arrive - but who are these “ investors “ ? THE BANKS !!!!
Ready and willing to give out help and loans to their “ Customers”
YOU !

 

[LeroyBrown]

I've lived/worked in Chile on and off for over 10 years. Chileans suck. They are not happy, singing, dancing, smiling Latinos like most the rest of the continent, Chilean culture is more like Japan or Singapore. Chile is a very authoritarian country. The average Chilean is raised to be scared, which makes it impossible for them to think outside the box, and just like in places like Singapore, the vast majority of positions that require leadership cannot be filled by Chileans and they need to import people from abroad to do that. The Chilean government even has a startup program where they pay foreign entrepreneurs 50K USD in cash to come to Chile to build startups, again, because the average Chilean is such an ultra conformist that concepts like creativity and leadership are basically unknown to them & they're scared to death of that. That aside, Chilean food is trash, they don't like foreigners, they have no culture of their own and copy whatever USA does, it has some of the most polluted cities on Earth, I could keep going on. If you didn't pay me a lot of money to be in Chile I would never consider going there.

 

[perry]

After the crash of epic proportions in 2001 and you could basically buy property here for peanuts - it presented a feeding frenzy in the property markets and construction went into overdrive creating a huge bubble - along with the BLUE DOLLAR
Tourism was booming and Argentina was a very attractive place to be - This had zero to do with “ good economic policies “ this is ridiculous to entertain this idea- property prices rose astronomically and within 5 years a lot of people were sitting on big property profits- this had nothing whatsoever to do with Kirchners policies-

Kirchner was much more financially prudent that Macri and borrowed the least possible on international markets . His economy was based on internal consumption and it worked spendidly . Remember he also paid back the IMF and other creditors . This economic boom was not caused by a property bubble at as prices rose due to real factors of demand and supply . In those days 99% of all purchases were in cash justifying my argument that this was not a bubble .

Now the last two years was a real property bubble and I mentioned this to many friends ( took me a lot to convince them as people when properties are in this cycle they want to believe that they will rise forever ) The economy was in recession since last year as businesses were doing very poorly in general but property prices went up due to three factors the blanqueo ( bringing in over 100 billions dollars of mostly black money to Argentina) the peso that never devalued in close to two years making Argentina expensive and cheap credit that fueled the bubble to astronomical proportions. I work in real estate now for 12 years and know the property market very well . The bubble from 2015 to Jan 2018 was created by these factors and not by any solid economic factors . 80% of all inquiries were with credit approval meaning that the demand was artificially created and not due to real factors . I can tell you now that the property market has completely collapsed with most realtors only staying afloat from rentals . This never happened once under the Kirchners ( who were corrupt ) but were financially more prudent than the current government .

Macri has only borrowed and borrowed and borrowed and did not make one policy to stimulate the internal economy and create small and medium size businesses . I have asked this question many times on this forum to Stantucker where has the 200 billion dollars gone that Macri has borrowed through bonds and loans . I never have recieved an answer .