Do you fear a crash similar to 2001?

[wrangler]

Do you fear a crash similar to 2001 ?
Answer : No - The people are better prepared this time around .

How do you figure? How are they better prepared? I would argue that with the inflation that has been going on, they are not better prepared.

So where is this heading ?
Answer : A debt based system.

I doubt credit will be expanded here in Argentina, anytime soon.

The peso has been ordered to float - the $57b loan is a buffer for the daily running of the economy- until the Peso
Resets to its true value - maybe 1-50 , 1-75 - ( time will tell )
Then what ?
Answer : Then and only then will the “ investors” arrive - but who are these “ investors “ ? THE BANKS !!!!
Ready and willing to give out help and loans to their “ Customers”
YOU !

I doubt that Macrinomics will continue beyond November 2019. Current polls suggest he and his party is going to get ran out of town.

 

[Stantucker]

Kirchner was much more financially prudent that Macri and borrowed the least possible on international markets . His economy was based on internal consumption and it worked spendidly . Remember he also paid back the IMF and other creditors . This economic boom was not caused by a property bubble at as prices rose due to real factors of demand and supply . In those days 99% of all purchases were in cash justifying my argument that this was not a bubble .

Now the last two years was a real property bubble and I mentioned this to many friends ( took me a lot to convince them as people when properties are in this cycle they want to believe that they will rise forever ) The economy was in recession since last year as businesses were doing very poorly in general but property prices went up due to three factors the blanqueo ( bringing in over 100 billions dollars of mostly black money to Argentina) the peso that never devalued in close to two years making Argentina expensive and cheap credit that fueled the bubble to astronomical proportions. I work in real estate now for 12 years and know the property market very well . The bubble from 2015 to Jan 2018 was created by these factors and not by any solid economic factors . 80% of all inquiries were with credit approval meaning that the demand was artificially created and not due to real factors . I can tell you now that the property market has completely collapsed with most realtors only staying afloat from rentals . This never happened once under the Kirchners ( who were corrupt ) but were financially more prudent than the current government .

Macri has only borrowed and borrowed and borrowed and did not make one policy to stimulate the internal economy and create small and medium size businesses . I have asked this question many times on this forum to Stantucker where has the 200 billion dollars gone that Macri has borrowed through bonds and loans . I never have recieved an answer .

Perry, In your and Wrangler's fanatical hatred of Macri, you either don't read other people's posts or you read something that could possibly be construed as support of Macri (in any area, not just economically) and you decide that person is a unconditional supporter of Macri. I have said any number of times in this thread and others that Macri has mismanaged the economy, I have used words like "colossal failures." I have said I agree with most of what you have said about Macri's handling of the economy. I have admitted that the situation could get very, very nasty. What I have said before and I repeat here is that I support what Macri has done in other areas, like taking on all the mafias and narcos in this country. But again, me having said even that will be taken construed as unrelentless support of Macri. We all know what happened to those 200 billion of dollars, and when did I ever say I was in agreement with that. Please read people's posts, and when you do, don't read between the lines things that are not there, like this unconditional support of Macri.

 

[perry]

Perry, In your and Wrangler's fanatical hatred of Macri, you either don't read other people's posts or you read something that could possibly be construed as support of Macri (in any area, not just economically) and you decide that person is a unconditional supporter of Macri. I have said any number of times in this thread and others that Macri has mismanaged the economy, I have used words like "colossal failures." I have said I agree with most of what you have said about Macri's handling of the economy. I have admitted that the situation could get very, very nasty. What I have said before and I repeat here is that I support what Macri has done in other areas, like taking on all the mafias and narcos in this country. But again, me having said even that will be taken construed as unrelentless support of Macri. We all know what happened to those 200 billion of dollars, and when did I ever say I was in agreement with that. Please read people's posts, and when you do, don't read between the lines things that are not there, like this unconditional support of Macri.

Are you for real? The drug mafias in Argentina are worse than ever. I suggest that you visit Rosario a city blighted by this problem and its worse than ever. Crime has gone up not down just now its not being reported in the media as to give people a false of security. These are the facts.

By the way I do not hate Macri I voted for him in 2015 as I wanted a positive change. Hate is a very strong word that you are using on this forum to creae the argument that I am some fanatic. This is a very cheap shot on your part Stantucker.

The only passion I have is for this country Argentina a country I love dearly. I only wish we had good governance as to have hope for the future. Now many of us have to leave our homes and start again elsewhere due to the financial errors of this government. This is the reality of millions now who are planning to leave as they have done in 2001.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Kirchner was much more financially prudent that Macri and borrowed the least possible on international markets . His economy was based on internal consumption and it worked spendidly . Remember he also paid back the IMF and other creditors . This economic boom was not caused by a property bubble at as prices rose due to real factors of demand and supply . In those days 99% of all purchases were in cash justifying my argument that this was not a bubble .

Now the last two years was a real property bubble and I mentioned this to many friends ( took me a lot to convince them as people when properties are in this cycle they want to believe that they will rise forever ) The economy was in recession since last year as businesses were doing very poorly in general but property prices went up due to three factors the blanqueo ( bringing in over 100 billions dollars of mostly black money to Argentina) the peso that never devalued in close to two years making Argentina expensive and cheap credit that fueled the bubble to astronomical proportions. I work in real estate now for 12 years and know the property market very well . The bubble from 2015 to Jan 2018 was created by these factors and not by any solid economic factors . 80% of all inquiries were with credit approval meaning that the demand was artificially created and not due to real factors . I can tell you now that the property market has completely collapsed with most realtors only staying afloat from rentals . This never happened once under the Kirchners ( who were corrupt ) but were financially more prudent than the current government .

Macri has only borrowed and borrowed and borrowed and did not make one policy to stimulate the internal economy and create small and medium size businesses . I have asked this question many times on this forum to Stantucker where has the 200 billion dollars gone that Macri has borrowed through bonds and loans . I never have recieved an answer .

You mentinioned K was corrupt, ok, How?
Were they asking bribes to privates? An ultra K judges request to me brives. So, that was the K corruption.

But you are biased, you didn’t talk about the M corruption. They kept the usd low for 2 years, meanwhile they skyrocketed the fees of all the companies they own until 1000%. So, they got a lot more pesos that they lend to theirself in Lebacs and later bought cheap usd that they flew away. This was possible taking loans that we are going to have to pay: 150 billion usd. And you say the K were corrupt?

 

[perry]

You mentinioned K was corrupt, ok, How?
Were they asking bribes to privates? An ultra K judges request to me brives. So, that was the K corruption.

But you are biased, you didn’t talk about the M corruption. They kept the usd low for 2 years, meanwhile they skyrocketed the fees of all the companies they own until 1000%. So, they got a lot more pesos that they lend to theirself in Lebacs and later bought cheap usd that they flew away. This was possible taking loans that we are going to have to pay: 150 billion usd. And you say the K were corrupt?

Listen Bajocero lets get the facts straight Kirchner like Macri are both corrupt this is a reality. Do you honestly believe there is a government in power today that does not accept kickbacks? Australia has had many corruption scandals over the years and this is considered a clean country.

I stated though that the governance under the Kirchners was superior to now in many ways. Corrupt they were but they were also prudent in financial planning and their policies created a stronger middle class

 

[London2Baires]

Some interesting details here from Sandleris on the new IMF backed economic policy in terms of implementation and the underlying reasoning.

Make of it what you will:

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/2177018-guido-sandleris-ni-loco-compraria-dolares-este

 

[wrangler]

Some interesting details here from Sandleris on the new IMF backed economic policy in terms of implementation and the underlying reasoning.

Make of it what you will:

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/2177018-guido-sandleris-ni-loco-compraria-dolares-este

ROLMFAO!!!

You really expect anyone to take advice from this clown?? He may not even remain at his job for long. Please, give us a break. How on earth is he going to contain the U.S Dollar with the current monetary policy implemented by BCRA? With interest rates continuing to rise in the US well into next year, the PBI in Argentina went down 2.7% this semester, and exports are down as well. Again, another important official in the 'cambiemos' party slapping Argentines in the face, with nonsense. Notice he did not give specific details as to how he plans to contain the dollar. Now if they change their policy of not letting the dollar float, that is another story, however it's doubt the IMF will allow this. Don't forget, Duvjone is now a lapdog of the IMF, so in essence they are our minister of economy.


The theme of 'cambiemos' is to create more poor people, so of course he doesn't want you to buy U.S. dollars. I think I will continue to stay in U.S dollars, and not listen to this gooney. Furthermore, even if they decide to contain the dollar, at what cost will it come to The Argentine's people sovereignty?

 

[earlyretirement]

I agree with wrangler that people won't take advice from him. The truth is that no one knows what will happen and there is so much fear that the fear will trump anything else at this point. NO ONE I know is staying in pesos. My sharper close friends several weeks ago asked me something interesting. Keep in mind I trust these people like I trust family. They asked me if it was possible to get them US credit cards as authorized users on my account. I told them of course it was very easy and I could get cards in any name. My banks allow that and don't require a SSN.

My accountant said that there is going to be an inverse this time with the official rate actually stronger than the blue rate. And it's a pain waiting in line to exchange money at cuevas. So she said that she would give me US dollars in Buenos Aires (as I always need funds there for various companies that I own). And now the government has made it where most stores MUST accept credit cards. Restaurants, stores, cafes, etc. So she is charging with my US credit card and getting 40.93 pesos to $1 US (yesterday) without the hassles of having to exchange money at cueva and she said it was higher than she could have gotten at a cueva. So win/win.

 

[wrangler]

I agree with wrangler that people won't take advice from him. The truth is that no one knows what will happen and there is so much fear that the fear will trump anything else at this point. NO ONE I know is staying in pesos. My sharper close friends several weeks ago asked me something interesting. Keep in mind I trust these people like I trust family. They asked me if it was possible to get them US credit cards as authorized users on my account. I told them of course it was very easy and I could get cards in any name. My banks allow that and don't require a SSN.

My accountant said that there is going to be an inverse this time with the official rate actually stronger than the blue rate. And it's a pain waiting in line to exchange money at cuevas. So she said that she would give me US dollars in Buenos Aires (as I always need funds there for various companies that I own). And now the government has made it where most stores MUST accept credit cards. Restaurants, stores, cafes, etc. So she is charging with my US credit card and getting 40.93 pesos to $1 US without the hassles of having to exchange money at cueva and she said it was higher than she could have gotten at a cueva. So win/win.

Yes, true, for now. The reason the official rates are higher than at the cuevas is because of the volatility of the AR$/USD. If this 'divisa' does not settle, continue to expect the same thing, that is, for the official rates to be higher than at the cuevas. If the dollar is tamed however, expect this trend to reverse in short order.

 

[earlyretirement]

Yes, true, for now. The reason the official rates are higher than at the cuevas is because of the volatility of the AR$/USD. If this 'divisa' does not settle, continue to expect the same thing, that is, for the official rates to be higher than at the cuevas. If the dollar is tamed however, expect this trend to reverse in short order.

Yes, if this new policy/plan of theirs doesn't work (which I'm not sure if it will as there is so much fear) then the official rates should be higher. Also, I imagine with the law of supply and demand where locals can only exchange a certain amount in white vs. being able to exchange unlimited amount on the blue market. With so many people in "black" I guess even if the government allowed people to exchange unlimited amounts on the white market, they still wouldn't do it to stay off the AFIP radar.

It will be interesting to see how things play out. Wrangler, do you personally think this devisa will work in the short-term?