Effects Of A Default On Expats

[Matiasba]

Its not so much an issue with american justice, or the houldouts, the thing is clearly geopolitical here. The US has lost the strings with many countries of the region, they are losing power everyday, their influence is going back everyday, and this is an amazing chance to continue and refund this relationship. They have the Pacific Alliance (Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile, well, I think they lost Chile with Bachelet) they have also Paraguay, they will have Uruguay, and probably Argentina. Lots of countries, but still, its not like the 80s or 90s when the world was exclusively the US and Europe. Today its Russia, China, Brazil, BRICS, Unasur, Celac, its not only the US and the OAS.

So this debt and the role the american justice is playing, apart from the holdouts themselves, is more than anything, geopolitical strategy. The US wants a country which they can dominate easily, with debt, of course they didnt like the getting-out-of-debt policies, the growth, the sovereign, the independence... they want to get back to the 90s or 80s, with depressed economies, ruling world commerce, etc

 

[JoeGillis]

Image of the US Justice system --> on the foreign side (does this story make look the US safer as a business place if there's so much legal uncertainty? -> interpretation of the pari-passu which started slowly evolving in the 1990s / very weird interpretation of the Champerty doctrine in this case / role of the lobbies, etc.).

Furthermore it's also about a Judge, as honorable he may be, who might not have anymore the capacities to work. If the case was about parking tickets, why not, but this case has a worldwide effect (millions of lives, etc.).

Of course, the average American Joe doesn't give a damn about this story, I agree

The average American Joe doesn't KNOW about this story. As has been noted previously on this site, the average American Joe doesn't even know WHERE Argentina is located.

 

[Rich One]

now that Richard Geere is involved things will be OK An older Geere's pic .

 

[French jurist]

Complex situation (there's no international Law of sovereign bankruptcies), the solution might actually be political, but not in the way like Obama overriding Griesa's decision (I did read something about that some weeks ago: when a judicial ruling affects substantially foreign policy, the President has such a power. If someone knows more about that?), since obviously BO won't wet his shirt now to defend directly Argentina (a bit too late indeed).
Solution might be political because Griesa's decision (and the fact the SC refused to look at the case) simply puts private interests (and not yours or mine, we are little fish) before the sovereignty of the states.
That's already a problem because if Griesa's ruling indeed applies to bonds under the NY law, it's hardly arguable that Europe is under the sovereignty of Griesa's Court (that's why the BONY is in an aweful situation).

To reverse things, I sincerely don't think that US investors buying bonds under the NY law would accept not getting paid because a Belgian court decided otherwise (or not?!). In fact, I think the situation would be very different and if the USS Nimitz was seized in Cameroon, US reactions would also be different.

I'll dare to pretend that Argentine's position is stronger than the Vulture funds ones (for political reasons).

Simply quoting again the first message I posted in this thread 9 days ago (I rarely -or never did- post again my own messages).

 

[gusgutier]

Actually, lacoqueta, the banks weren't the one raiding the safety deposit boxes in 2001. It was the Argentine government. People had kept jewelry and gold in safety deposit boxes, only to find that through the corralito law, the the gov. had taken it.

It never happened. Local with a safety box in Banco Provincia casa central at that time

 

[ghost]

Common Frenchie, at the end of the day this crap is legal histrionics. Argentina is a serial defaulter that has historically and consistently flaunted every ones rules/laws and customs. It's not the fault of [someone else] aka the usa. Its that Nestor gave the world the finger and blew off tradition, norm, rule of law and international decorum. Now the whole thing is a shit storm and pooooooor Argentina is crying "it's not our fault"..........................again. Argentina needs to belly up to the bar and propose how they are going to put this dog to sleep. They wanted this in a US court so they would someone to blame for Nestors bad judgment.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Its not so much an issue with american justice, or the houldouts, the thing is clearly geopolitical here. The US has lost the strings with many countries of the region, they are losing power everyday, their influence is going back everyday, and this is an amazing chance to continue and refund this relationship. They have the Pacific Alliance (Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile, well, I think they lost Chile with Bachelet) they have also Paraguay, they will have Uruguay, and probably Argentina. Lots of countries, but still, its not like the 80s or 90s when the world was exclusively the US and Europe. Today its Russia, China, Brazil, BRICS, Unasur, Celac, its not only the US and the OAS.

So this debt and the role the american justice is playing, apart from the holdouts themselves, is more than anything, geopolitical strategy. The US wants a country which they can dominate easily, with debt, of course they didnt like the getting-out-of-debt policies, the growth, the sovereign, the independence... they want to get back to the 90s or 80s, with depressed economies, ruling world commerce, etc

Matías, you are assuming that Peronists are in charge of the US government. For better or worse, Judge Griesa is acting autonomously, according to common (if not universally accepted) precepts of US law, and geopolitics plays no role whatsoever in his thinking.

 

[Matiasba]

Matías, you are assuming that Peronists are in charge of the US government. For better or worse, Judge Griesa is acting autonomously, according to common (if not universally accepted) precepts of US law, and geopolitics plays no role whatsoever in his thinking.

yes, autonomously, sure...
(isnt he a member of the republican party?)

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

yes, autonomously, sure...
(isnt he a member of the republican party?)

Not everywhere in the world is like Argentina, Matias.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

yes, autonomously, sure...
(isnt he a member of the republican party?)

Griesa was appointed by Nixon in 1972, but judges are non-partisan and have lifetime appointments to insulate them from political pressure. According to Wikipedia. "He was an attorney with the Admiralty and Shipping Section of the U.S. Department of Justice from 1958 to 1960, and was then in private practice in New York City from 1960 to 1972." One judicial order of his, in 1981, blocked a construction project favored by Republican Ronald Reagan because it would have damaged the striped bass fishery.