I feel like a real estate purchase is pretty much a gamble here...

[Bajo_cero2]

There are no prices now because the market feels a default comming. You should wait for buying.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Yes we asked but no concrete response so far, all they said that it is a sucesion, basically two brothers who had already supposedly finalized the papers and all but there is no evidence of this. Once we find our own escrow we'll simply let the realtor to communicate with our escrow about the papers and based on that we'll see if the property is even worth pursuing, but of course we'll mention the undeclared money to our escrow and try to work something out.

A real State on sucesion cost about 40% of its market price and this is something only an specialized attorney buys.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

they want us to use their own escribano supposedly because that's what the seller prefers and feels more comfortable with, but if the choice is ours legally then it definitely makes our life easier, we are scared to death having to travel for over an hour with cash in the realtor's car (we don't have a car yet) to seller's escrow...

Never use his escribano.
Do it with your lawyer and escribano. Use a lawyer because there are several legal steps design to avoid frauds and a lawyer knows them and has the training to see a fraud when the seller tries to by pass those steps are there there to protect you.

 

[expat0tree]

Never use his escribano.
Do it with your lawyer and escribano. Use a lawyer because there are several legal steps design to avoid frauds and a lawyer knows them and has the training to see a fraud when the seller tries to by pass those steps are there there to protect you.

thank you for the advice!

 

[expat0tree]

There are no prices now because the market feels a default comming. You should wait for buying.

I agree that nobody is paying nothing and the country is slipping into a worse place since many months ago but where is the guarantee that the prices would be cheaper towards the end of the year or in 2020? can you see a better buyer's market coming? please provide details.

 

[steveinbsas]

I agree that nobody is paying nothing and the country is slipping into a worse place since many months ago but where is the guarantee that the prices would be cheaper towards the end of the year or in 2020? can you see a better buyer's market coming? please provide details.

I think a lot depends on whether your stash is in dollars or pesos.

I don´t know how accurate the figures are, but there have been posts (based on statistics outside of this forum) that prices in dollars fell from about ten to over twenty percent in 2018 while prices in pesos rose by as much as 50%.

If you have dollars, and you can pay in pesos, it might be wise to wait for the next devaluation, especially if it´s as great as last year´s...or even if it¨only half that much.

If you have pesos and the seller will accept them, it might be wise to buy as soon as possible.

 

[expat0tree]

it might be wise to wait for the next devaluation

any certain indication of another devaluation coming prior to elections? or is this post-elections type of therapy much like it was in 2016?

 

[steveinbsas]

any certain indication of another devaluation coming prior to elections? or is this post-elections type of therapy much like it was in 2016?

My crystal ball is foggy at the moment.

Do you have a Magic eight ball?



If not, here´s one you can use on line: https://magic8ballfortuneteller.com/

 

[Jerbo]

I agree that nobody is paying nothing and the country is slipping into a worse place since many months ago but where is the guarantee that the prices would be cheaper towards the end of the year or in 2020? can you see a better buyer's market coming? please provide details.

The other day, I looked at a top floor, 3-bedroom in Recoleta. Condition was fair, it would need a remodel and the kitchen was stupid. One bedroom was nice, the other two were yawners. I almost lost my lunch when the agent said $530K.

Here is how I value a property, or any asset for that matter. I take the amount of cash I can pull out the asset over it's useful life, then discount it to present value using a reasonable risk factor. This is finance 101.

I could rent this place for $2K per month if I was lucky. There were $300 monthly in expensas and let's say $200 per month for depreciation. So I could clear $1.500 US per month if I was fortunate - which is $18K per year. Now plug that into any present value calculator on the internet and I came up with a value of $300K.

So $300K is the economic value of this apartment - based on my assumptions. Many people will say, "Yeah, that's just theoretical finance. Plus, you get to live in it - you can't put a price on that. Plus, I'll never sell. So I'm gonna ignore this academic stuff."

Here is the problem with ignoring economic value: at some point in time, all assets always return to their economic value.

In other words, I don't know when it is going to happen, I don't know how it is going to happen, but that Recoleta apartment will be worth $300K sometime in the next 10 years. I'll bet anyone $100 on that.

So to respond to the poster's question, calculate the present value of the cash you could take out of this asset over it's useful life. If the value you derive is above the asking price, you have a deal. If the value you derive is below the asking price, you've got a boondoggle. If the seller is asking for a 75% premium above economic value, as was the case with this Recoleta apto, turn and run.

 

[expat0tree]

at some point in time, all assets always return to their economic value.

this makes sense to me because based on much cheaper current labor costs and relatively cheap building materials the prices are stubbornly high and sellers are holding off hoping for a turn around, i almost want to call it ignorant-optimism, plus to add the inevitable dry up of funds when IMF package is spent and done with and argentina begins to struggle with repaying the installments, then we all go to square one and the real estate market doesn't know what to do with its crazy volume of listings and no sales for any price because another devaluation would make it impossible to buy even small amounts of dollars, let alone savings for future investment.