Is BsAs that dangerous??

[pauper]

Pauper, You are saying that below listed parts of the city should be avoided. I was told that f.ex. Belgrano is one of the safest city districts of BsAs...From the information I could read here, these districts seem to be safer than the rest of the city and maybe this is why they have now become targeted by criminals? What are your thoughts on it guys?

No, my apologies. I was merely pointing out that everyone is trying to argue their position from their anecdotes (and those of friends, friends of friends etc...) - not diminish anyone's experiences but its a rather small sample size to extend to a city of, yes, 14 million. I found it interesting that it took 89 posts before someone spoke of statistics. You have to understand that there is a lot of politics here also, alarming headlines about crime and insecurity have been an accepted code for an attack on the government here for some years. There are government statistics up until 2007 or 2008 but as the government fabricates quite openly the inflation statistics few people believe in them (although I don't recall seeing evidence that these particular numbers were being modified).

I don't live in Recoleta/Palermo/Belgrano and as I said in another post I come to this forum and read so many reports of crime from there amazed but as mentioned the majority of expats live in these barrios and so most reports of crime on an expats site are going to come from there. I really can't comment on the safety of those areas as I don't know them well enough I was merely trying to point out that coming here waving a bunch of anecdotes doesn't make you the holder of the truth.

Here's an example:

It's a gross exaggeration to say that you are safe if stay in safe neighborhoods. There are no safe areas in Buenos Aires.

The writer goes from denouncing 'an exaggeration' to making a blatant one of their own without a moment's pause. As mentioned there are no objective definitions of safe and dangerous - these are people's opinions based on their experiences, gut feelings, stories they've heard etc. 'I don't find any areas of BA to be safe' would have been a more appropriate way of putting it.

You can put all these anecdotes together and try to make an informed choice but remember most expats live in the areas mentioned above so while it may appear they are crime central this may not necessarily be true. I know when I go to those places I can spot foreigners out the corner of my eye, this may be an advantage if you dress (and walk) a little less conspicuously, you won't be one of the limping wildebeest for the lions.

If you are interested there is a crime survey by a university here, they have only been compiling statistics since 2006 and they tend to fluctuate within each year but overall haven't increased much:

http://www.utdt.edu/ver_contenido.php?id_contenido=968&id_item_menu=2156

Their survey method doesn't really allow a comparison to statistics from other cities to find a reference point (unless you can find similarly structured surveys) but its something. Sorry again for the confusion.

 

[ElQueso]

A couple of weeks ago, I was in a friend's house waiting for a person who my friend and I were to meet with regarding some business. The guy rang the bell and when I came downstairs and opened the door, I noticed him staring gape-mouthed down the street to the left, obviously in shock at something he'd just seen.

When I glanced down there, I noticed a crowd of people standing around an older woman. On closer inspection, I saw that the woman, sitting up on teh sidewalk near the street corner, was covered in blood and newspapers full of blood (someone in the crowd was trying to help staunch the flow of blood).

She had just been the victim of a motochorro. The pair had come up the street and saw the old woman, who was walking close to the street on he sidewalk. The driver swerved over and the rider on back grabbed the purse, which was over her right shoulder. At the same moment the rider grabbed the bag, the driver gunned the motorcycle. The force spun the old woman around a couple of times and she ended up slamming her head on the pavement.

That took place at the intersection of Uruguay and Paraguay just in Barrio Norte/Recoleta, at about 6:00 in the afternoon, in the middle of rush hour with a ton of people around.

Last Saturday, my older sister-in-law's boyfriend got robbed. He's Canadian and is down for a month on vacation from work. He was wearing an expensive watch, walking down Callao near Alvear, about 3:00 in the afternoon. Another motochorro, but a little different. This time the rider jumped off the bike, came up behind the victim and jumped on his back, throwing a stranglehold on him with one arm while he ripped the watch off with the other. While the victim was stunned, the rider jumped on the bike and the two took off toward Libertador without anyone being able to raise a finger to help.

Two weeks ago, my younger sister-in-law was robbed of an MP3 player. It was in her backpack, which was closed tightly. But the bus was crowded and the pickpockets were easily able to get into her backpack without her knowing and stole it.

About three months ago, my wife was robbed in the same fashion on the subte. Very crowded and the pickpockets managed to get her nice cellular phone without her knowing it until later.

My brother-in-law has been robbed 3 times at knife point and once at gunpoint, near his pensione located close to Cordoba and Callao. This usually happens when someone stops you and asks for a light for a cigarette or a to ask directions. While your attention is on this person, two others come up from behind and stick a knife in your ribs and tell you to hand over everything. They are even getting pretty slick at this these days - the person who originally stops you used to be dressed in common to ratty clothes, but since everyone started getting suspicious of people dressed like that stopping you, they have started wearing suits and appearing like businessmen.

My older sister-in-law is studying at a chef school in BA. She has a good friend and classmate whose father was robbed two weeks ago in this fashion, in plain daylight, though in a quiet area in Flores, and was not only robbed of his valuables, but the shitheads made him strip everything but his underwear and left him to make his way back home not only enraged from being robbed, but also humiliated.

These are not just anecdotes. This crap is happening everyday here, wary or not.

Personally, I have never in my life been robbed except for a home break in once, but never personally like this. I don't know if I'm over-vigilant or just extremely lucky (you can bet I'm knocking on wood even as I type this).

But whatever the case, there are thousands everyday who are not lucky. The crimes may not always be violent, but sometimes they are, and in any case humiliation and a feeling of helplessness and anger at the violation is not a very good consolation.

I don't see things getting better - the new traffic cops aren't going to help and there simply are not enough policemen to patrol all areas, much less even the "rich" areas. Right behind Recoleta is a huge villa where a lot of these criminals live. Easy access to Recoleta and all points beyond by crossing railroad tracks and Libertador. With prices for food rising the way they have been, stores closing down, etc, I can't see this kind of crime getting any better any time soon.

Having said all of the above, I know people here who as well have never been robbed or assaulted. Personally, I never feel unsafe walking anywhere in BA. However, I know the crime exists.

And it's all relative - at least there aren't drug dealers having shootouts with the authorities in the streets like some places in Brasil...

 

[ElQueso]

Another comment - there is not too much reporting of these crimes either. Whatever statistics have been compiled (I didn't read the whole thread), very few people bother to report crimes such as these - there is no way the police force has enough manpower to do anything about it, and besides, the prospect of finding the perps is almost non-existent.

I know a guy who is a crime scene investigator for the federal government. He's actually Welsh but has lived here for over 20 years and has beena cop almost all that time. He tells about the lack of police response and not really caring about these crimes. In some cases, he alludes to the cops themselves being paid off by these gangs that do the robberies.

 

[pauper]

These are not just anecdotes. This crap is happening everyday here, wary or not.

I was using the term as it relates to evidence, ie in contrast to scientific evidence:
Evidence, which may itself be true and verifiable, used to deduce a conclusion which does not follow from it, usually by generalizing from an insufficient amount of evidence. For example "my grandfather smoked like a chimney and died healthy in a car crash at the age of 99" does not disprove the proposition that "smoking markedly increases the probability of cancer and heart disease at a relatively early age". In this case, the evidence may itself be true, but does not warrant the conclusion.

Another comment - there is not too much reporting of these crimes either. Whatever statistics have been compiled (I didn't read the whole thread), very few people bother to report crimes such as these

True but even the rate of reporting can be (and has been) statistically estimated allowing at the very least for a comparison in a South American context where rates of reporting of crime are often low and in some cases lower than in Argentina. That's also why Torcuato Di Tella employed household surveys to collect their data, bypassing police reports.

 

[MizzMarr]

Another comment - there is not too much reporting of these crimes either. Whatever statistics have been compiled (I didn't read the whole thread), very few people bother to report crimes such as these - there is no way the police force has enough manpower to do anything about it, and besides, the prospect of finding the perps is almost non-existent.

So true. Never once did I report anything that happened to me personally, because, honestly... what good will it do? I had *firemen* trying to rob me at one point, the police don't even have to graduate from high school, this is a corrupted system if there ever was one. I personally don't have any faith in the system, and would rather have the foresight to redirect those couple of hours towards something more fun or productive.

 

[ElQueso]

Pauper, I don't disagree with what you said, and I certainly wasn't trying to call you out on the "anecdote" comment - in fact, as you alluded to, the only way anyone can even begin to compile any kind of semi-meaningful statistic is to canvas people themselves. The problem with this is that it isn't very scientific really, as far as arriving at the statistics.

I still have't read the link about the statistics themselves - too much to do and I shouldn't even be writing this due to lack of time

But one thing I know - any statistic that comes from the government is going to be "cooked." Any statistic that relies on canvasing an area will obviously rely on anecdotal evidence which in itself is not scientific and cannot give us the real picture. On top of that, I have a feeling the canvassers didn't necessarily contact every "class" of person either and in certain areas there are going to be different statistics because of what is nearby (such as the villa I mentioned close to Recoleta).

As an example of canvasing problems at arriving at valid statistics, I wonder how many poor people were asked vs how many rich or middle class people, within the same neighborhood. You would be surprised how many poor are victims as related to how many rich and middle class, within a given area. My brother-in-law, who makes about 1800 pesos a month and lives in a pensione, has been robbed 4 times in his area, close to where rich and middle class people live. But he leaves his apartment at 6:00 am because he has to travel a couple of hours to get to the jobsite where he works and there aren't very many people out at that hour. He's easy pickin's relatively speaking. Rich people are more likely to make a scene, have rich friends that could could cause the robbers to have more problems if they are ever recognized, so on and so forth, so they might not always be the preferred targets. The poor pretty much shut up and take it because they have no choice, whether it's the thieves robbing them or their own government.

Also the tourists are more at risk because they aren't likely to be able to cause any long-term problems either. Between the poor and the tourists, I wonder how many are asked versus the middle class and rich?

I don't know the answer. I just know that a majority of the people I know here have been robbed, assaulted or raped (yes, in the back of a cab, a cousin to my wife - that was about two years ago and I forgot to mention that), most of the problems occuring in the last two years. It could be an anomaly among people I know, or it could be that no one is able to gather good statistics.

However, no one I know has ever spent time in the hospital or even been killed, so I have to say that at least the crime is more of a thievery nature, and not violent (at least for the sake of violence), except for the rape.

BTW - the rape was unreported as well, it just took a lot of family members talking to and consoling the poor girl over a long period of time to get her life back to a semblance of order.

 

[pauper]

But one thing I know - any statistic that comes from the government is going to be "cooked."

Could we still not compare them to cooked statistics from other countries? Are they more or less cooked? I don't know, I don't have the statistics on cooked quotients!

Any statistic that relies on canvasing an area will obviously rely on anecdotal evidence which in itself is not scientific and cannot give us the real picture. On top of that, I have a feeling the canvassers didn't necessarily contact every "class" of person either and in certain areas there are going to be different statistics because of what is nearby (such as the villa I mentioned close to Recoleta).

I agree, but I don't actually know their methodology (have a look at their website if you want) and I don't put forth their numbers as something definitive just another piece of the picture - they are actually more often quoted to argue there has been an increase in crime here.

 

[marrokome]

I have visited Buenos Aires many times, and frankly, I feel a lot safer walking around the city in Buenos Aires rather than in Los Angeles, Phoenix or any other metropolitan American City. Most people in Buenso Aires are courteous and well respected. Ofcourse, I would not recommend walking alone late at night just as you wouldnt do anywhere else. I never flaunt or wear any flashy jewelery, unless I am with my husband and we are going to an area that we are familiar with. Just be aware of your surroundings and enjoy the wonders that the city has to offer.

 

[HotYogaTeacher]

We have a lovely apartment for sale in Congreso. I love this neighborhood. Lots of well stocked grocery stores. I have my own Chinese food store just two blocks away so I don't have to go to Barrio Chino when I need things. It's Old Japan Town, so lots of great Japanese restaurants. It's WAY cheaper than shopping in Palermo or Recoleta and the restaurants are cheaper too. It's central. The neighbors (who love us and think of us, I think, almost like pets (our little americans)~ are regular upper middle class people who have nice kids and are clean and responsible and educated and friendly. We love living out of the tourist ghettos. We're not tourists, we live here, we own a home, so like it or not we feel that we have gotten a deeper and more enriching cultural experience here than in one of those neighborhoods.
We're right on the A line, the best line with the old cars (heart) so stop by and see us. Jimmy's newest work is always on the walls and I teach yoga here at noon and 4 Monday through Friday.
If you know someone who's looking for a place outside the ghettos, check it out...

 

[pauper]

I think El Petiso Orejudo is Argentina's only serial killer (outside of a military administration) and he did his thing 100 years ago. Well done Argentina, may you have many more non military administration serial killer free years.

Damn, you Argies can't take a trick. You always say we are whining too much on this forum so I paid your country a sincere compliment and what do you do? Within a matter of weeks you produce another serial killer to make me look stupid. What's worse, he was living just down the road from me.

Suspected serial killer arrested in Argentina

Detuvieron a asesino serial en el Bajo Flores