Is the expat party coming to an end?

[Rich One]

Infation will be under control by April. Even if it's not $20 / kg is still cheaper than my home country

Inflation under control by April....? Other choices ? Inflation Higher than now? Inflation the Same ? Inflation One digit?

 

[Quilombo]

Inflation under control by April....? Other choices ? Inflation Higher than now? Inflation the Same ? Inflation One digit?

Inflation can come under control by April if nobody has a job or any money, so there's no demand, which is what I worry about happening.

Milei is an orthodox far right winger economically, so he's pursuing full austerity and hopes the invisible hand of the market™ does something (anyone remember Macri's lluvia de inversiones?) what that something is I have no idea, because as myself and others keep reminding people, every time this sort of "shock therapy" has been tried here or elsewhere, wages remain static at best, and shrink while costs rise.

I'm mostly concerned about social unrest as Quilmes said. If someone's salary remains $200/month and rent goes from $100 to $350 for a bachelor, meat doubles, rice/polenta/grains double, tomatoes have doubled, etc. then we're going to see an increase in insecurity and saqueos as desperate people do desperate things.

Nobody argues a change isn't/wasn't needed, it's the intensity, and the fact it's not falling on "the caste" that's the problem. Have you tried taking a bus lately? It's like waiting in line at ANSES, and we're not even in 2024 yet.

 

[sergio]

Inflation can come under control by April if nobody has a job or any money, so there's no demand, which is what I worry about happening.

Milei is an orthodox far right winger economically, so he's pursuing full austerity and hopes the invisible hand of the market™ does something (anyone remember Macri's lluvia de inversiones?) what that something is I have no idea, because as myself and others keep reminding people, every time this sort of "shock therapy" has been tried here or elsewhere, wages remain static at best, and shrink while costs rise.

I'm mostly concerned about social unrest as Quilmes said. If someone's salary remains $200/month and rent goes from $100 to $350 for a bachelor, meat doubles, rice/polenta/grains double, tomatoes have doubled, etc. then we're going to see an increase in insecurity and saqueos as desperate people do desperate things.

Nobody argues a change isn't/wasn't needed, it's the intensity, and the fact it's not falling on "the caste" that's the problem. Have you tried taking a bus lately? It's like waiting in line at ANSES, and we're not even in 2024 yet.

What if Massa had been elected? What do you think would have happened? Would inflation be less / the same / more? If Milei goes after 'the caste' at this time, will he get ANY support or will they drive him from office? I don't have the answers but I pose the questions.

 

[retiredbanker]

Within 6 months wirh inflation at 25 percent per month prices will be more than double todays . With a controlled blue rate argentina will lose 75 percent of its tourists and nomad traders who choose Argentina for its low cost of living . Steak will reach 20 dollars a kilo by the end of 2024 and this to me is a outrage in 2003 it was 3 dollars maximum . Those were the best years 2003 to 2008 cheap and very good quality

What will happen if prices continue to increase and incomes don't, will be a reduction in demand for, as an example, a $20 steak. Same with TV services like Netflix. If prices rise, demand decreases and soon prices will follow. I hope.

 

[nikad]

I am no expert but I feel that if Argentina gets very expensive in dollars and salaries are too low there will be social unrest, at the same time if salaries follow it will not be very attractive for investors. In any case with governments changing rules 360 degrees every 4 years, I am not sure they will be very attracted. Not sure what will follow tbh.

 

[FrankPintor]

I am no expert but I feel that if Argentina gets very expensive in dollars and salaries are too low there will be social unrest, at the same time if salaries follow it will not be very attractive for investors. In any case with governments changing rules 360 degrees every 4 years, I am not sure they will be very attracted. Not sure what will follow tbh.

At the time of the previous elections, my feeling was that Macri should continue, despite not having done a good job (just how bad a job he did would only become clear later), and that Argentina needed some stability at that point. Then Alberto was elected, had to deal with the pandemic, which he did quite well (even though certain forum members will never forgive him for keeping the rest of us safe), and then spent the rest of his term putting his foot in his mouth at every possible opportunity. So now the rudder has been yanked 180 degrees back and the only certainty is that there is no certainty

 

[TimeTraveler]

Within 6 months wirh inflation at 25 percent per month prices will be more than double todays . With a controlled blue rate argentina will lose 75 percent of its tourists and nomad traders who choose Argentina for its low cost of living . Steak will reach 20 dollars a kilo by the end of 2024 and this to me is an outrage in 2003 it was 3 dollars maximum . Those were the best years 2003 to 2008 cheap and very good quality

The dollar won’t remain at the same price for 6 months. This is only a temporary respite.

 

[Miguel741]

Inflation under control by April....? Other choices ? Inflation Higher than now? Inflation the Same ? Inflation One digit?

Inflation down baby. I believ3 in Mikei with all my heart and I'm rich like you

 

[nikad]

I think the key is to get more people employed with decent salaries and get inflation under control. 50% of the population under the poverty line is unsustainable: no subsidies or plans will ever help solve it. There needs to be way more exports and genuine (not public) employment.

 

[nikad]

As for expats, if things get better Argentina should be cheaper than Europe or the US but not like it was in 2003. I am sure some will stick if they have ties or enjoy the culture and some will leave. This would be in an optimistic scenario.