Is the expat party coming to an end?

[antipodean]

New Zealand underwent a similar “shock” in the 80s. It did it without any dictatorship or authoritarian policies. The UK also has been there and done that, again without a heavy hand. Sweden went re-deregulated and liberalized in there 90s (after interest rates reached 500% after the little experiment with actual socialist policies between the 50s until the early 90s totally backfired)…again also without a an authoritarian regime and as a parliamentary democracy. Germany underwent major shock-therapy after the war and return of democracy turning it into a “miracle economy”. Post soviet states like Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia also went down this road in the 90s. Poland also went down this road in the 90s but relied on special executive powers to push through changes (perhaps more similar to what we are seeing/ will see in Argentina’s political approach to it).

Just saying, it’s not always such a doom and gloom drama and has more than a few “success” stories to come out of such reforms.

 

[Rich One]

Clarin full page article states that supermarket prices in BA are similar to prices posted in Miami or London . Due to the last inflation peak .

Inflación en dólares: fideos, gaseosas y latas en Buenos Aires como en los súper de Miami o Londres – VIVE La Plata

Según un relevamiento que hizo Clarín entre supermercados de Estados Unidos, Inglaterra y México, los productos que se venden en góndolas en Buenos Aires ya registran precios similares a los de muchos lugares del extranjero y respecto a hace unas semanas atrás. En algunos casos incluso se pagan...

vivelaplata.com.ar

 

[mikic007]

New Zealand underwent a similar “shock” in the 80s. It did it without any dictatorship or authoritarian policies. The UK also has been there and done that, again without a heavy hand. Sweden went re-deregulated and liberalized in there 90s (after interest rates reached 500% after the little experiment with actual socialist policies between the 50s until the early 90s totally backfired)…again also without a an authoritarian regime and as a parliamentary democracy. Germany underwent major shock-therapy after the war and return of democracy turning it into a “miracle economy”. Post soviet states like Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia also went down this road in the 90s. Poland also went down this road in the 90s but relied on special executive powers to push through changes (perhaps more similar to what we are seeing/ will see in Argentina’s political approach to it).

Just saying, it’s not always such a doom and gloom drama and has more than a few “success” stories to come out of such reforms.

I would like to believe Argentina will go similar path, but in reality not one of these countries is similar. All those countries have people with discipline that I've never saw in Argentina. Laws and order have been always respected, even if economies were poorly run. Closer than all of them I would say is Serbia, that had 300 million % inflation at the peak of 2 years inflation. They managed to overturn it, but never really prospered. Similar to Argentinians, Serbians have feeling of being superior to their neighbours, relying on their "glorious" past, blaming everyone else for the troubles, taking shortcuts if possible... But even they have more order in the country...

Shock is only good if you proceed with the plan, can't do anything by itself.

 

[gringoexpress]

I would like to believe Argentina will go similar path, but in reality not one of these countries is similar. All those countries have people with discipline that I've never saw in Argentina. Laws and order have been always respected, even if economies were poorly run. Closer than all of them I would say is Serbia, that had 300 million % inflation at the peak of 2 years inflation. They managed to overturn it, but never really prospered. Similar to Argentinians, Serbians have feeling of being superior to their neighbours, relying on their "glorious" past, blaming everyone else for the troubles, taking shortcuts if possible... But even they have more order in the country...

Shock is only good if you proceed with the plan, can't do anything by itself.

There's also the geopolitical backdrop to consider. The US used to be a much freer country with a functional economy back then. Now, where else is there to go? Lots of talented people are leaving the UK, Canada, and New Zealand for the hard left turn their countries have taken after the pandemia. If they don't like the heat in El Salvador and don't have an 8 figure net worth to get into Singapore, where else is there to go? I suspect I'm not the only person who sees Argentina as the prettiest horse in the glue factory and is betting accordingly. I expect a lot of productive people will be coming here in the near future for lack of better options.

 

[Quilombo]

Clarin full page article states that supermarket prices in BA are similar to prices posted in Miami or London . Due to the last inflation peak .

Inflación en dólares: fideos, gaseosas y latas en Buenos Aires como en los súper de Miami o Londres – VIVE La Plata

Según un relevamiento que hizo Clarín entre supermercados de Estados Unidos, Inglaterra y México, los productos que se venden en góndolas en Buenos Aires ya registran precios similares a los de muchos lugares del extranjero y respecto a hace unas semanas atrás. En algunos casos incluso se pagan...

vivelaplata.com.ar

I was saying this a couple weeks ago in the dollar blue predictions thread:

Prices are insane. I just checked Dia's website, US prices for stuff, all domestically produced, it's just robbery, none these items are worth what's listed because the people making them sure as shit aren't getting paid that much:

- $1.99 USD for Coca Cola
- $3.26 USD for a gallon of milk
- $1.00 USD for a KG of pasta
- $4.13 USD for a KG of cherries
- 68¢ USD for a can of Budweiser

Sometimes I think Argentina is a country where regular economics does not apply.

Has anyone noticed these things? Maybe I'm just imagining it, but I want to see what you guys think:

- Stores can somehow stay open without selling anything; there's an employee there, Monday to Friday, but I never see any customers or people buying things. Furniture stores, specialty stores, hardware store, etc. doesn't matter, it's like they're all fronts, except this is in Congresso or Palermo or elsewhere
- Prices pre and post-Milei in dollars are insane considering the average salary is ~$500/month according to the article Rich shared; whose buying things?
- When demand falls, instead of decreasing, prices seem to be increasing, including on items with no imported parts/components
- Businesses that sell perishable goods seem to be fine with throwing stuff out rather than selling it at a price that can cause stock to move
- Some businesses are just straight up trolling people and aren't planning on selling anything, i.e. Samsung, $3,700 USD for a phone, they're freebacing paco if they think anyone here will pay that, it's cheaper to fly to Miami and buy the phone there and get a free vacation out of it, and it's "made" in Argentina

 

[Rich One]

- When demand falls, instead of decreasing, prices seem to be increasing, including on items with no imported parts/components
- Businesses that sell perishable goods seem to be fine with throwing stuff out rather than selling it at a price that can cause stock to move

Argentina Economic Law. When demand falls all vendors raise prices to maintain the Total revenue. Can this go forever. .

 

[gringoexpress]

I was saying this a couple weeks ago in the dollar blue predictions thread:

Sometimes I think Argentina is a country where regular economics does not apply.

Has anyone noticed these things? Maybe I'm just imagining it, but I want to see what you guys think:

- Stores can somehow stay open without selling anything; there's an employee there, Monday to Friday, but I never see any customers or people buying things. Furniture stores, specialty stores, hardware store, etc. doesn't matter, it's like they're all fronts, except this is in Congresso or Palermo or elsewhere
- Prices pre and post-Milei in dollars are insane considering the average salary is ~$500/month according to the article Rich shared; whose buying things?
- When demand falls, instead of decreasing, prices seem to be increasing, including on items with no imported parts/components
- Businesses that sell perishable goods seem to be fine with throwing stuff out rather than selling it at a price that can cause stock to move
- Some businesses are just straight up trolling people and aren't planning on selling anything, i.e. Samsung, $3,700 USD for a phone, they're freebacing paco if they think anyone here will pay that, it's cheaper to fly to Miami and buy the phone there and get a free vacation out of it, and it's "made" in Argentina

I went antiquing to start finding furniture for my apartment this week. I saw a shop down the street with some interesting stuff in the window, and lo and behold one day the door seemed to be open. I went up and knocked, and a few minutes later the shopkeeper let me in. She seemed a bit surprised to see me there. I told her I was looking for a nice desk, and she said she had one in the back, and took me back a room through giant piles of stuff everywhere. There was a dead bird on the ground that looked like he'd been there a while, which she quietly swept up and disposed of. I used to work in the antique business back in San Francisco, and I knew a number of, ah, eccentric dealers who would hold onto stuff for decades in the hopes that one day it would be the new trend and extremely valuable, or something along those lines. The price on the desk wasn't entirely unjust, but I doubt any locals would be buying it, much less wading through dead animals to do so.

I see similar things in the local housing market in Brazil where I'm trying to sell my house. The same house 2 blocks away has been for sale since I bought my house years ago. Every few weeks, since the news says the housing market is going up, they dutifully raise the price of the house to keep up with rising house prices. The things these people have for sale aren't things they generally want to sell, they're their only lottery ticket, and they aren't going to get rid of them at market place because then they wouldn't have any irons left in the fire to one day get rich off of, maybe, hopefully.

The price isn't set by market demand, the price is set based on how much money the seller needs. Right now, with prices going up, they need a lot more money, hence they raise the prices. At the risk of sounding crass, I think of this as "third world mentality."

 

[Quilombo]

Argentina Economic Law. When demand falls all vendors raise prices to maintain the Total revenue. Can this go forever. .

I guess we'll find out soon enough, but my Magic 8 Ball says the following:

 

[SinPulgas]

I was saying this a couple weeks ago in the dollar blue predictions thread:

Sometimes I think Argentina is a country where regular economics does not apply.

Has anyone noticed these things? Maybe I'm just imagining it, but I want to see what you guys think:

- Stores can somehow stay open without selling anything; there's an employee there, Monday to Friday, but I never see any customers or people buying things. Furniture stores, specialty stores, hardware store, etc. doesn't matter, it's like they're all fronts, except this is in Congresso or Palermo or elsewhere
- Prices pre and post-Milei in dollars are insane considering the average salary is ~$500/month according to the article Rich shared; whose buying things?
- When demand falls, instead of decreasing, prices seem to be increasing, including on items with no imported parts/components
- Businesses that sell perishable goods seem to be fine with throwing stuff out rather than selling it at a price that can cause stock to move
- Some businesses are just straight up trolling people and aren't planning on selling anything, i.e. Samsung, $3,700 USD for a phone, they're freebacing paco if they think anyone here will pay that, it's cheaper to fly to Miami and buy the phone there and get a free vacation out of it, and it's "made" in Argentina

Yes, I've noted those things many times and tried to tell people that I know here that this is not normal. Their response is usually, as it is for most things, "Well, that's Argentina."

You made me think of a couple other things that have always driven me crazy here.

• Where I come from, if the bread and pastries make it to the afternoon, they're marked down to half price. And there are stores that sell expired bakery products at significant discounts. Here, those things are rarely fresh, and never discounted.
• I can't count the times that I've been served burnt food in restaurants. It always amazes me that they can put something burnt in front of me with a straight face. When I'm with someone from here, they don't even blink, and they say nothing. Nobody seems to care.

 

[antipodean]

Yes, I've noted those things many times and tried to tell people that I know here that this is not normal. Their response is usually, as it is for most things, "Well, that's Argentina."

You made me think of a couple other things that have always driven me crazy here.

• Where I come from, if the bread and pastries make it to the afternoon, they're marked down to half price. And there are stores that sell expired bakery products at significant discounts. Here, those things are rarely fresh, and never discounted.
• I can't count the times that I've been served burnt food in restaurants. It always amazes me that they can put something burnt in front of me with a straight face. When I'm with someone from here, they don't even blink, and they say nothing. Nobody seems to care.

In all fairness it’s not the first time Argentina has seen non-sensical prices and the unfazed response is totally to be expected.

On one hand I remember that for a few months under CFK the price of a simple cup of (awful!) coffee surged to higher than those of London due to some change of the day taking effect - I remember having a strong impression that Argentina was extremely expensive and low quality. We had something similar under Alberto too when for a few days/ weeks there were no prices for things like fridges and phones then sky high prices. Whenever major changes happen there are a few days/ weeks/ months of price mayhem as sellers speculate how much it will cost to replace the stock on their shelves. Only thing to do is wait it out.

On the other hand my electricity bill has been cheaper than a kilo of ice-cream for years/ more than a decade (and bueno, we are ALL paying the cost of that now).

The rest of it comes down financial survivorship mentality (here today, gone tomorrow) that people and businesses need to live here, influenced a lot by their own being screwed as customers due to lack of competition and crazy government policies distorting every rule of economics beyond recognition. Why waste good food if no one complains and they buy it nonetheless? The ones that care about quality go to the bakery early. The ones that don’t want burned food complain and probably get a free cafecito and postre out of it…. No llores, no mames.