News In The Usa Is Argentina Might Default Again

[jackbower]

Sinuous thread!

I think this is a rather facile conclusion, Jack. While there are certainly plenty of countries with simmering divisive issues, certain specific countries are at far greater risk for exploding into civil war. Countries such as Ukraine, Egypt, Yemen, CAR... have paricularly explosive combinations of poverty, unemployment and tattered social safety nets that make them acutely prone to sectarian divisions that other similarly ethnic/religiously diverse countries are not facing.

While I agree that Montauk's post blissfully skips over the complexities of the situation in Ukraine, it does however make a salient point about the current differences between Ukraine and Argentina. You could lose a tonne of money betting on Argentina or Brazil erupting into 2001-style crises, but Ukraine heading there is a pretty safe bet. What never ceases to amaze me is that people who were here a dozen years ago can't see the difference.

if you honestly think Europe isn't a tinderbox, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[EdRooney]

I'm sorry, did I say Europe wasn't a tinderbox?

 

[jackbower]

I'm sorry, did I say Europe wasn't a tinderbox?

i didn't see you mention any of them. Like most europeans, they like to point the finger outwards all the while ignoring their own, unemployment, severe poverty, immigration problems, external debt, stagnant economies, debtor nation status, etc. The only difference is since European countries are NATO countries, they can beat, imprison, kill, torture and silence their opposition and nobody says a word. Yet if it happens in the middle east, eastern Europe Asia or any country that doesn't have a puppet regime in charge, its the end of the world, civil war etc. If NATO intelligence services and their respective NGOs would stop funding g extremists and terrorists in these countries, there wouldn't be so much violence. Ukraine was peaceful up until the current government decided not to sign away its sovereignty over to NATO and the IMF. Ukraine is simply paying because it won't bow down to external pressure. But I digress, this isn't a forum where real politik is spoken or even understood. Were still in elementary school over here so I'll just leave it at that.

 

[scotttswan]

So you expect the police to just sit their and let themselves be set on fire? What would happen in that little pirate island england if and when rioters were to get violent? Do the police just turn the other cheek? Right. Spare me the rhetoric.

:lol:

 

[EdRooney]

OK This is good, since I agree with much of what you're saying. I believe Ukraine did the right thing in not submitting to the EU's blackmail.

That said, there's a huge difference between Ukraine and say, Spain. (btw, I'm not really European, so my point is not jingoism.) Ukraine and Spain both have massive unemployment, and both are suffering from counter-prouctive austerity. But in Spain this is a recent phenomenon, since up until recently Spaniards had successfully defened social safety nets like unemployment insurance, health care, etc. Only now are they being dismantled. Meanwhile Ukraine has been undergoing the same process since at least the 90's and it's finally starting to reach a boiling-over point. Spain, Portugal, Italy could very well be Ukraine in a decade or so, and Greece even sooner, but there are fortunately still stop-gaps (besides just oppressive regimes) in those countries that are keeping their societies from coming completely undone for the time being.

 

[jackbower]

OK. First, please enumerate these Ukrainian austerity measures you speak of? And second please explain to me these fantastical " stop gaps " in European countries you mention. Police and intelligence service repression? Spying on everyone? Printing money like there's no tomorrow? Maybe you meant confiscating bank deposits from private citizens ala Cyprus? I mean seriously, I think you are fooling yourself into thinking your Europe is any less closer to the precipice. There's a reason there are so many European immigrants in Latin America, that just refuse to leave. Trust me, no matter what most of them might say, many are here because they can't find work or a decent living standards in their home countries. I know it can be embarrassing to be a poor immigrant, much less have to admit to it, but they aren't fooling anyone. If they are so well off in their own continent and they hate 9 out of 10 things about Argentina, why do they stay? Just look at the chart I posted on the previous page. The answer is clear as day. NO JOBS.

OK This is good, since I agree with much of what you're saying. I believe Ukraine did the right thing in not submitting to the EU's blackmail.

That said, there's a huge difference between Ukraine and say, Spain. (btw, I'm not really European, so my point is not jingoism.) Ukraine and Spain both have massive unemployment, and both are suffering from counter-prouctive austerity. But in Spain this is a recent phenomenon, since up until recently Spaniards had successfully defened social safety nets like unemployment insurance, health care, etc. Only now are they being dismantled. Meanwhile Ukraine has been undergoing the same process since at least the 90's and it's finally starting to reach a boiling-over point. Spain, Portugal, Italy could very well be Ukraine in a decade or so, and Greece even sooner, but there are fortunately still stop-gaps (besides just oppressive regimes) in those countries that are keeping their societies from coming completely undone for the time being.

 

[EdRooney]

Absolutely agreed that current economic policies in Europe are backward, harmful and destroying the countries. But Ukraine has essentially been suffering the same for much longer: cuts in education, health care spending, unemployment insurance has been a joke since the USSR was abolished and there has been non-stop privatisation and liberalisation that has led to massive unemployment.

If you go to Spain, things are the worst I've ever seen there. For example, in August I met with various families in Andalucía where the younger generation does not have work, and they all move into grandpa's house and live off his 400 EUR pension and what's left of their unemployment insurance. That meagre pension and unemployment cheques (which the PSOE an the PP are both working to destroy) are what I am referring to as stop-gaps that are being gravely threatened. Meanwhile 400 EUR would be a dream for many Ukrainians.

My family's in Cyprus and I can tell you first hand that it's horrendous but it's not Argentina 2001(with which I also have experience) even though it's certainly on that path.

The difference between our positions here is not about about which policies are bad, but rather how long it takes for them to produce a conflict like the one in Ukraine. I have this argument with Argentine friends all the time, because they say the US or Europe aren't in crisis, because they don't have the symptoms of Argentina in 2001 or 1989. What they're missing is perspective. They want to say austerity is just fine because it doesn't produce immediate social unrest, but as I keep repeating, these things take time; they're large scale and we tend to be so apocalyptic about things that we can't see the difference between different sized crises.

We agree on alot here, Jack.

 

[John.St]

So you expect the police to just sit their and let themselves be set on fire? What would happen in that little pirate island england if and when rioters were to get violent? Do the police just turn the other cheek? Right. Spare me the rhetoric.

Yeah, you clearly see the British police armed with guns, clubs, batons, shields, water cannons, etc., don't you?
Where?

 

[jackbower]

[quote name= timestamp='1390674995' post='240790']
Absolutely agreed that current economic policies in Europe are backward, harmful and destroying the countries. But Ukraine has essentially been suffering the same for much longer: cuts in education, health care spending, unemployment insurance has been a joke since the USSR was abolished and there has been non-stop privatisation and liberalisation that has led to massive unemployment.

If you go to Spain, things are the worst I've ever seen there. For example, in August I met with various families in Andalucía where the younger generation does not have work, and they all move into grandpa's house and live off his 400 EUR pension and what's left of their unemployment insurance. That meagre pension and unemployment cheques (which the PSOE an the PP are both working to destroy) are what I am referring to as stop-gaps that are being gravely threatened. Meanwhile 400 EUR would be a dream for many Ukrainians.

My family's in Cyprus and I can tell you first hand that it's horrendous but it's not Argentina 2001(with which I also have experience) even though it's certainly on that path.

The difference between our positions here is not about about which policies are bad, but rather how long it takes for them to produce a conflict like the one in Ukraine. I have this argument with Argentine friends all the time, because they say the US or Europe aren't in crisis, because they don't have the symptoms of Argentina in 2001 or 1989. What they're missing is perspective. They want to say austerity is just fine because it doesn't produce immediate social unrest, but as I keep repeating, these things take time; they're large scale and we tend to be so apocalyptic about things that we can't see the difference between different sized crises.

We agree on alot here, Jack.
[/quote] Ukraine has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Europe. I believe its around 7%. The problem isn't jobs, its high paying jobs. And the fact that many people have the illusion that the EU is better off when its really not. Ukraine still has free education and free healthcare and subsidized gas and public transportation. Also, government benefits aren't too shabby. My point is, none of what's going on economically in the country should translate to the rioting and destruction of Kiev. That is NATOs doing and isn't organically Ukrainian. Divide and rule is the game. Luckily the majority of Ukrainians are seeing past the same old NATO narrative " they are fighting for freedom, the government is oppressing them, they need our freedom bombs or Saudi terrorists to help them ".

This is all political theater. Nothing more. An excuse to try and colonize another sovereign nation. Why? Because the EU is flat broke and it needs open markets where they can peddle their goods and services. You can't have infinite growth in a finite world. This is why your system is failing as we speak.

 

[Gringoboy]

Little pirate island england.
Please dissect this short sentence and hand in your answers at the end of class.