No Toilet Paper. No Butter. The Future Of Argentina?

I have always felt that Nestor Kirchner took a healthy distance from Hugo Chavezes radical policies and was pretty much like a poor imitation of Lula. After Nestors death the comparison between the two countries became more or less a grey zone. And in this new era, after the death of Hugo Chavez, there has been an increased discourse of closeness between Venezuela and Argentina. However, it's hard to predict if these ties are really based on anything more profound than just opportunism and the power play in international relations.

I agree.
The relationship between both countries is very simple: Venezuela has oil and cash to buy argentine products like butter or toilet paper.
They also has money to lend argentina when nobody else wants to do it.
Critics on this subject are stupid.
Even Videla during "the dirty war against communism" had the Soviet Union as his best client (agrain and meat) and ally (they provided the location of the Royal Task Force to the AR Air Force).
http://elpais.com/di...002_850215.html

In the US I saw Chavez´s oil Station everywhere no matter how many US ambassadors ared kicked out of Venezuela.

Money talks.

I think one of the problems of Kirchner is that apart from presenting herself as a charasmatic personality (which is absolutely laughable compared to that of Chávez) she doesn't really have an ideology.

Well, this is something good.
Seems (according with the examples you give) that the complain is that She has not an extremist ideology.

At least Chavez knew how to appeal to people with his socialist discourse, but apart from some of the subsidy programs and the increasingly isolationalist economic policies, this government in Argentina is as uncommited and unsteady as possible. It's not left-wing politics, neither right-wing,

During the 70´s the Montoneros used to say they they were on the left of Peron while the AAA were on the righ wing, and with arrogancy they asserted that in the middle there was air.

Man, come on, you are saying the same.

The fact is that instead of air, in the middle is the people. That´s explains why She won by 54% of the votes.

The extreme left or right doesn´t represent the argentines. They are just extremist elites who represents it self.

it's just a bombastic theatre without any true foundation. For K supporters, that is an inconvenient vision, but come on, even the name is absolutely ridiculous ''Frente para la Victoria''. At least names like ''Partido Socialista'' or ''Democracia Cristiana'' or even ''The National Socialists'' woul still make some sense, but this Cristina Kirchner circus can't even cover up that their only ideal is to steal from public funds.,

Your complain is something like this:

D´Agostino Vargas; Calo Beron, Castillo Tanturi....what the hell...this ignorants are so primitive that they don t use names for the bands. It is wrong...what kind of name is this? This is not a name! (because you don t understand, right?) it is a wrong name because it doesn t clarify if the music they play is Jazz, Rock or Swing.

Helloooooooooo, in Argentina you have something unique called Tango and Argentines understand that first name is the singer and the seconds is the director of the Tango Orquesta. Right, it is called culture. We have developed our own culture.

The same happens with politics. Let´s see a super simplification:

Argentines takes very seriously the idea that we are not a Colony since English were repeal by common people in streets fighs during 1806 and 1807.
http://es.wikipedia....de_Buenos_Aires

Remember that later Argentina and Venezuela were the leaders of the independency war against Spain. That´s why you have Avenues or places called General San Martin in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Perú.
http://es.wikipedia....eral_San_Martin

On 1847 Juan Manuel de Rosas battled the navy of France and England in the Paraná River at Vuelta de Obligado because they asserted that the inner waters of Argentina were international waters. Foreing powers won the battle but the price was so high, that they gave up, so the war was won again by Argentine.
http://es.wikipedia....lta_de_Obligado

I go to the point now. During the 70´s, Montoneros before they were infiltrated by the ERP (Extreme left pro cuban), has a nationalist ideology that emulated the historical facts I quoted before. They were the young peronist who developed a new ideology that Peron lated rejected (even they said they were socialist, if you analisys the ideology, it is not. Peron rejected it because he was facist).

1. They were against the powerful monopolies that makes argentines poor in a Rich country. Prices are ridiculously.........Clarin sounds familiar? Techin; Alluar, REPSOL (they created the energy deficit we have of 12 billion dollars because they didn t invest a dime while they had to according to the contracts)

2. They were against the patria contratista (corrupt companies who work for the State charging 10 times more for whatever they do)
Macri for example, before the last dictadura had 7 companies. After it, they had over 40.
http://blogsdelagent...ria-contratist/

3. They were against the Sociedad Rural (farmer´s Union) because they are the oligarchy of this country. They behave like this is a monarchy and they are the nobility. It means, they don t have to pay taxes, if they don t like the government they coup it just like that..........Well, they failled this time.

The K taxed them strongly. remember the voto no positivo and the farmer´s lock out?

During the 70´s the phrase "Hasta la Victoria siempre" was identified with montoneros. Frente para la victoria means they have a Montoneros ideology.

Campora was the Peronist President who allowed Young Montoneros to get political power while Peron told them that they were too young, that they have to wait 30 years before to rule.
http://es.wikipedia....or_José_Cámpora

Campora means, then, to allow young politicians to make carrer by meritocracy instead of by age no matter how corrupt of negligent you are (autoritarism)

Frente para la Victoria is very clear about the "Montoneros" ideology of the partie until 1973 (it was infiltrated by the ERP, it means Marxism Leninism by brutal force) That´s why its political organization for young people is called "La Campora". It is super clear that it has nothing to do with the extreme Left or Marxism. It is the peronism of the young people of 1973 that after 40 years is old enought to make it happens by peaceful methods. During the 70´s they had some good ideas, a lot of optimism but they made a huge mistake of timming. They were debating with Peron (in personal chats face tp face) and he said that time saves blood while blood saves times. He advices to save blood, that they should wait another 30 years to rule. During the 70´s children of 18 years wanted to change injustice and they used violence to save time.

They were all killed, we all know. Their mothers who had nothing to do with politics, kept their political ideas alive as a way to keep them alive, but they add their wisdom: they choose time to save blood. It took 30 years to the mothers to acchive what their children attempt to do in 2 years.

The close relationship of the Government with the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo is very clear sign that they have nothing to do with violency of the 70´s. Instead, they addopted the wisdom of the pacifist philosophy of a groups of mothers who wait for 30 years to see the murderers of their children and grand children in Jail.

The policy that the police did not use violence with social manifestations is a clear example of what I mean. On the other political side we all know why Macri developed his own police task force and how he uses it.

So, Frente para la Victoria is super clear, La Campora too, as clear as Social Democracy or any other of the examples you used. It is only that you didn t understand it.

The one who ignores is like the one who is blind.

This gov makes an authoritarian impression, and it increasingly is, but remember this is Argentina, a weird country where many developments simply turn out to be eternal illusions.

It is a weird country, I guess I tried to explain part of the why.

If the people of a country are "good slaves", there is less conflicts.
 
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Choked on my burrito when I read this:
Government explanation for the shortage of TP in Venezuela:

http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/161430-Venezuela-afirman-que-la-falta-de-papel-higinico-es-porque-la-gente-est-comiendo-ms

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A//www.iprofesional.com/notas/161430-Venezuela-afirman-que-la-falta-de-papel-higinico-es-porque-la-gente-est-comiendo-ms&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=UTF-8
 
Some points which really ought to be self evident.


1. Social Democracy is not an Argentine invention. 'Young peronists' did not invent it in 1973! I doubt you are claiming that but it really looks like you are amongst the convoluted history lesson. Obviously Argentina, like every other country in the world, has it's own culture.

2. This government are very very far indeed from having policies of a modern Social Democracy. Sadly. Any objective (important !) examination of what the objectives of social democracy are and the key tenets of a social democracy we easily identify a long list of policy outliers. Populism, protection and international isolation are not the hallmarks of a modern Social Democracy. Please, I beg you, take a look at Norway for an example of how to run a successful Social Democracy with a mixed economy supported by state owned petroleum resources. Hint. FpV are.not.doing.it.right.


3. Post colonialism is also a very common condition for countries in almost all geographies in the world today. It's not a precursor for the kind of bad government we see in Argentina today.

I don't accept the FpV propaganda. This does not mean we do not understand it's policies. I care not for it's history as I am only interested in what politicians can do for a country today and not what they were up to as teenagers in the 1970s.

So, instead of you telling us that we don't understand Argentina, I am telling you that you do not understand what it claims to be. A social democracy...don't make me laugh.
 
Thanks but no thanks for the history lesson Bajo_cero2.
It really does make me cringe that we have to keep looking back through history to find the roots of the problems this country faces now, today and in the very real here and now.
I find it laughable that an intelligent lawyer such as yourself is not prepared to acknowledge the sinister forces that are at work in this country and in particular I would name La Campora.
To dress that bunch of militant thugs up as anything else, quite frankly is absurd.
Your assertion that La Campora allows youngsters to become politicians through merit???
You actually believe that?
Let me rephrase that:
La Campora indoctrinates youngsters, seduces them into its misguided ideology and uses its own God like images and promises of glory and riches as have many other so called cults through the ages.
 
Gringoboy and dublin: we don t need to agree. I think that in that long reply i pointed clearly that Frente para la victoria has a clear meaning, the same of the name "la Campora".
You can not compare argentina with Norway because, again, argentina is not copying social democracies but, instead, the K has their own political project that doesn t fit into the labels you expect. You dodn t get the analogy of tango.
Norway, norway???? They aren t genious. They are 5 millions with a huge budget and inmigrants aren t welcome.
Regarding la Campora, you don t understand what i mean because you didn t try to compete for a position with locals in the real argentina. It is like an monarchy were people who study at certain schools believe they deserve to rule without making an effort. You dont get a job by merit and they don t make you a space unless you follow the rules of corruption. That s why the politicians are frozen and there aren t changes beside the Pro and the K.
You don t like the K, i got it. And i respect it.
 
Gringoboy and dublin: we don t need to agree. I think that in that long reply i pointed clearly that Frente para la victoria has a clear meaning, the same of the name "la Campora".
You can not compare argentina with Norway because, again, argentina is not copying social democracies but, instead, the K has their own political project that doesn t fit into the labels you expect. You dodn t get the analogy of tango.
Norway, norway???? They aren t genious. They are 5 millions with a huge budget and inmigrants aren t welcome.
Regarding la Campora, you don t understand what i mean because you didn t try to compete for a position with locals in the real argentina. It is like an monarchy were people who study at certain schools believe they deserve to rule without making an effort. You dont get a job by merit and they don t make you a space unless you follow the rules of corruption. That s why the politicians are frozen and there aren t changes beside the Pro and the K.
You don t like the K, i got it. And i respect it.

I understood your false analogy re tango. I respect you support many of the government's policies but some of your responses are very dismissive.

Immigrants are welcome in Norway. A very quick check on google and you will realise how incorrect your statement is. With a sovereign investment fund of 600bn they could well cope with a large population. Correctly manage petroleum and Argentina is set up to benefit, however this requires an engagement with the international market.

This is outside of what you will understand as neo liberalism, oil economics are based around hit rates and likelihood of actually getting something out of the ground. In Ireland, the hit rate is awful and even when fields are discovered there is a good chance the oil won't make it out of the ground hence the exploration licenses are sold at cheaply and without much benefit to the country, normally the oil company looses money due to high extraction cost + limited returns.

Here, with vaca muerta, returns are much more certain with the correct technology and expertise. So, a partnership is a must not only a funding perspective but also from an expertise perspective. The returns really could turn Argentina around, but with isolationism and protectionism the opportunity will be squandered.

I don't doubt there have been problem with social exclusion, no argument. This country is still a place of enormous potential and resource, social inclusion , improved education and real improvements in wealth distribution, poverty and food security are all possible.

The frustration is that this government is playing lowest common denominator politics to cling to power, ever more paranoid and shrill, while these opportunities glide past indifferent to the idiocy of government policy.


 
snip

Regarding la Campora, you don t understand what i mean because you didn t try to compete for a position with locals in the real argentina. It is like an monarchy were people who study at certain schools believe they deserve to rule without making an effort. You dont get a job by merit and they don t make you a space unless you follow the rules of corruption. That s why the politicians are frozen and there aren t changes beside the Pro and the K.
You don t like the K, i got it. And i respect it.

Bajo_Cero2, I'd appreciate hearing your responses to these questions:

1. Do you think Cristina and her team are engaged in corrupt activities such as siphoning money (Dollars) out of the country, paying cash for political favors, trading political favors for favors, etc?

2. Do you think Cristina and her team deal fairly and evenly with all parties no matter if they are pro or against the current government?

3. Do you think it is important to have an independent judiciary branch?

4. Do you think the recent "reforms" make the judiciary more independent or less independent?

5. Why do you think the reforms were important?

6. What has happened to YPF production over the last year? Has it gone up or down? By how much? What do you see as the future of YPF and the oil industry in Argentina?

7. Do you think inflation is at the levels that Cristina and her team say it is, ie 8-10%, or is it where most other economists say it is, ie 28-32%?

I'm asking these questions to really understand your perspective on these issues, not to try to engage you in fight. Seriously.

GS
 
Not everything the Kirchneristas have done is bad, but almost everything they've done the past few years is bad.
Ever since the death of Kirchner the situation has surely detoriated. Honestly, apart from the gay marriage thing I can't really recognize a single positive, sustainable development over the past few years. Cristina Fernandez is simply completely incapable of any way of rational governance which means she resorts to confrontation and discrimination. This is not only a product of the stagnated and ill political tradition in this country, but leads to further chaos and institutional marginalisation, which is why I don't believe that any future government in the next 30 years or so will be fundamentally different than this one.
 
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