So out of curiosity, the reports in the news are that selling/buying activity dropped off considerably in 2012 and into 2013. Are you saying that's not the case?
No, I'm not saying that. There was a significant drop in activity in 2012. That's because currency restrictions had buyers/sellers frozen. Remember the cries of "Pesification!"? One needs to understand the motivations of sellers here. For purposes of this discussion, there is no mortgage market in Argentina. That means that sellers own their properties outright and that means there is no mortgage payment banging on the door every month. So, when access to Dollars was cut sellers simply pulled in their signs (unless they were highly motivated by divorce, death, sickness, etc). On the buyer side that meant fewer properties on the market and more competition for those properties. Now, there is a large backlog of properties that will come back on the market as sellers relax a bit and more buyers have figured out how to complete sales and still get what they need and sellers have figured out how to get what they need (Dollars out of the country).
Yes, there are risks. You could buy an overpriced property on a bubble and then be left with 50% of the value. That isn't limited to Argentina (USA 2008). If there is a bidding war going on and everyone and their cousin is buying property that anyone can see is putting them in a highly leveraged position then there is a bubble. That isn't happening here. I expect property prices to back-peddle 10% to 20% this year. That brings investors who look at the risk of buying and judge the risk to be worth the investment. Where else can you get property in the center of a major, thriving city for $2000US per m2?
Put your money in when others are pulling theirs out, and vice versa. (I think that was Warren Buffet).
If you are into flipping properties this probably isn't the market for you. If you are into off-the-grid speculating investments then check out Mongolia (I'm not kidding). If you are a savvy, long-term investor then this market is worth considering, especially if you have income in Dollars either through salary or retirement income.
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