Troubling signs in the property market

[lamarque]

What do you get to lose for $10k ? What's the downsize ? 10k, upside 100k ? If any of you are going to investigate, I will be interested in joining.
All the good deals look like sh*t in bad times, you have to be able to identify it, and not worry about the downside, as long as you know what you are doing.

But they are basically going all the way communist in there, not sure how long will it be until people loose all private property rights. Besides is not only 10k is a lot of energy investment, and by passing the nighmare that implies an operation of that style right now in venezuela is quite a burden.

 

[jbeas176]

i was looking into buying a 10 room hotel to turn into a fishing lodge on margarita island for 150,000. some of the bedt saltwater flyfishing in the world. maduro held his fake election and promply said he had the right to nationize forgein property investments. it had a kitchen capable of serving 30 people. interesting, it had a thached roof. i guess hurricanes are not a proplem. oh well

 

[garryl]

But they are basically going all the way communist in there, not sure how long will it be until people loose all private property rights. Besides is not only 10k is a lot of energy investment, and by passing the nighmare that implies an operation of that style right now in venezuela is quite a burden.

China is a communist state, do you buy real estate in China if it's cheap ? As long as people still live, it will be OK.

 

[Ries]

China is a communist state, do you buy real estate in China if it's cheap ? As long as people still live, it will be OK.

actually, in China, you dont own the land- nobody but the government does. you lease, for long periods, but that could change at any time, at the whim of the government. So China is not a very good example.

 

[PaulBee]

My concern is not about having to hold it for a decade or two, but I fear it would be expropriated by Maduro

Also, I doubt you`d want to live in Caracas now. It`s one of the most dangerous cities in the world. It`s also a pain to get basic commodities - if they can be obtained at all. That`s why so many Venezuelans are fleeing.

 

[Somewhereinba]

Of course it concerns me as I have property here as it seems that the peak has passed . A buying opportunity must be combined with stability in government and a hopeful future . Properties in Caracas Venezuela are now U$ 10,000 for a two bedroom apartment would you buy there because you could take advantage of its cheap price?

If you are so concerned then sell it and buy somewhere else where you think stability exists (ps. It doesnt). Go look at our friends in the US for a nice recent example of a crash. Property like any asset flucuates in price - if you can't get over that fact you should not be investing. You still didn't say whether its your primary place of residence or an investment property.

 

[perry]

If you are so concerned then sell it and buy somewhere else where you think stability exists (ps. It doesnt). Go look at our friends in the US for a nice recent example of a crash. Property like any asset flucuates in price - if you can't get over that fact you should not be investing. You still didn't say whether its your primary place of residence or an investment property

Firstly I understand very well the real estate market and for this reason I have expressed my concerns as a warning to others . I have had many properties here and I still have properties in many provinces of Argentina . My concerns are very deep as I do not believe that the next crash will be just a few years but a long term crash and for me liquidity is very important . I see now that large properties are not selling unless very cheap and there is a huge stock of apartments for sale . Zonaprop ads for apartments for sale have increased 150% since 2017 . This is a very troubling sign as prices are completely connected to supply and demand . This trend will only worsen . I agree with you about United States and other real estate markets they are all on shaky grounds but of course there are other investments we can make that have less risk . Property prices are at a historic high and the prices clearly do not reflect peoples earning potential . Australia is the worst example where a one bedroom apartment can sell for 500,000 us dollars equivalent to 30 years of savings . Australia is now having a real estate crash as lending has been tightened and new laws implemented for foreign buyers who inflated and created this bubble . I would not buy a property in Australia for many years as prices there make no sense. IMHO the best properties to buy are those that can sustain you from food supplies and supply you with access to water . There are oportunities for these properties still in Patagonia and the amazon regions of Peru . These are long term investments and if you can keep the property safe its a good place to keep some money

 

[Somewhereinba]

So it seems like you should sell up based on your thoughts?

 

[perry]

So it seems like you should sell up based on your thoughts?

There are many variables of course but if you have all your liquidity tied up in Argentina real estate now is the time to sell. If you live and work here with a partner you can ride out the storm but in a protacted crash prices could take 10 years to recover as is happening to Greece where properties prices have lost their value enormously. Caracas Venezuela just 8 years ago was the most expensive city in south America in us dollars for real estate . Now its the cheapest in the world. Real estate values are not foolproof as proven by the 2001 crash in Argentina where prices crash 70 percent overnight for those who needed to sell . By 2014 though prices fully recovered. The next crash imho will be much more severe and protracted

 

[sergio]

There are many variables of course but if you have all your liquidity tied up in Argentina real estate now is the time to sell. If you live and work here with a partner you can ride out the storm but in a protacted crash prices could take 10 years to recover as is happening to Greece where properties prices have lost their value enormously. Caracas Venezuela just 8 years ago was the most expensive city in south America in us dollars for real estate . Now its the cheapest in the world. Real estate values are not foolproof as proven by the 2001 crash in Argentina where prices crash 70 percent overnight for those who needed to sell . By 2014 though prices fully recovered. The next crash imho will be much more severe and protracted

The signs are not good and I agree that it would be wise to liquidate property now if you are not prepared to ride out the economy - and that could be a long period of time. If you're planning on staying indefinitely the situation is different. I think too one's age is a factor. If you're older you just may not have time to wait around if you want to get on with your life and can't take risks.