Who Will Be Elected President In 2015?

[Matiasba]

You know I dont usually attack the poster but Matias me estás cargando? No tenés verguenza, estas diciendo cualquier cosa. Heres a few comments:
- growth was high due to it coming off a low base (the country was on its knees), there was only one way to go and that was up. Record soy and grains prices (totally out of the control of the government) also helped.
- the government hasnt tried to stop inflation. It needs to stop increasing the monetary base and decrease public spending & it hasnt done either. Check out the increase in the money in circulation (p2 of this report). Its increased 30% in the past 12 months. And look how the USD reserves has decreased in that time (as the government injects money in to the black market to try and control an illegal dollar they have themselves created through their policies).
http://www.bcra.gov....infomondiae.pdf
- the last bolded comment just says it all. You believe INDEC more than private estimates. So what, we have 8-9% inflation? Why dont you check your supermarket receipts.

i said I think the treu is in the middle. Read better.

About the growth coming from the crisis, yes, but that could explain lets say four, five years of growth, then you recovered the pre crisis numbers, its difficult to continue growing and expanding the economy. There are a lot of new consumers, as a prtoduct of social investment, and also industry explains a part of the growth.
The soy and grains prices helped but in the last two years prices have continued growing and the economy went down from 8% to 2%, so that variable doesnt explain the growth of the economy.
About the reserves decreasing, this is something it happens in this country every ten years, it doesnt obbey to some particular policies, it happened with the dictatorship, with Alfonsin, with Menem (where this people that take dolars outside were government and despite this they still produced 2001), and now.
Capital outflows is something that happen because the big capitals, the people that make money in this country, simple dont believe in it, so after making big money they just invest it in other thing outside the country. I repeat, they did it even in 2001 when they had the government they wanted that made every policy they wanted, or even with the milicos, that attached an enormous private debt to the State.
And unlike all these experiences, all in all this government still has some reserves, not as they were in 2010, but that can prevent surely another 2001.

 

[Matiasba]

Man, I have got to get myself on the Kampora email distribution list...I swear, never ending amusement.

Fair play Trennod. You are a more patient man than I. I have given up, tossed in the towel, the absurdity of the responses from the usual suspekts has me beaten. You cannot debate with kraziness.

The only thing left to do is sit back and hope the local electorate and opposition give us some sort of indication that this country might have a future in the Oct elections. Until then we have 3 months of loopy propaganda to suck up.

excuse me, crazyness?

to me, despite we have totally oposite ideas, at least me am talking with respect and in a very tranquil way. I expose my ideas in a correcct way, i dont attack the poster or anyone, I treat with respect (and thats what I expect, unless you want to become what you dont like of the Campora).
I know I wont change your mind and you wont change mine, thats for sure, so when I see something that doesnt fit with my thinking I just write and argue what I dont concur with.

 

[trennod]

i said I think the treu is in the middle. Read better.

About the growth coming from the crisis, yes, but that could explain lets say four, five years of growth, then you recovered the pre crisis numbers, its difficult to continue growing and expanding the economy. There are a lot of new consumers, as a prtoduct of social investment, and also industry explains a part of the growth.
The soy and grains prices helped but in the last two years prices have continued growing and the economy went down from 8% to 2%, so that variable doesnt explain the growth of the economy.
About the reserves decreasing, this is something it happens in this country every ten years, it doesnt obbey to some particular policies, it happened with the dictatorship, with Alfonsin, with Menem (where this people that take dolars outside were government and despite this they still produced 2001), and now.
Capital outflows is something that happen because the big capitals, the people that make money in this country, simple dont believe in it, so after making big money they just invest it in other thing outside the country. I repeat, they did it even in 2001 when they had the government they wanted that made every policy they wanted, or even with the milicos, that attached an enormous private debt to the State.
And unlike all these experiences, all in all this government still has some reserves, not as they were in 2010, but that can prevent surely another 2001.

The truth isnt somewhere in the middle (Middle being say 15%). The unions are negotiating 25% pay increases so its definitely closer to that. INDECs manipulation is a total sham, and a waste of public money.

Who are these big bad capitalists? Why dont they have confidence in the country if things are that great? If things are so fantastic, why would they be pulling their money out. See you guys get taught that the reason the economy fails is because of capital outflow due to capitalists wanting to sabotage the economy. But, the real reason is the economy/country are a disaster and no one has the confidence to invest long term in it.

The way to turn it around is to foster confidence, be responsible, predictable, decrease inflation, reduce intervention. Chile has done it well. Argentina should be looking to them, rather than to Venezuela.

 

[rrptownley]

Talking about the rural sector in another thread got me thinking.

What if Cobos ran? He is just about the only respected politician that has held high public office that has ever openly challenged the Ks.
If it came to Us and them, Ks vs non-Ks, Cobos would be quite a figurehead for an opposition vote.

 

[dennisr]

Keep hearing about Massa, mayor of Tigre. Seems to be very popular. Dark horse?

http://www.lapoliticaonline.com/noticias/val/91442-6/con-un-ojo-en-las-primarias-massa-paso-al-martes-la-cumbre-con-intendentes.html

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A//www.lapoliticaonline.com/noticias/val/91442-6/con-un-ojo-en-las-primarias-massa-paso-al-martes-la-cumbre-con-intendentes.html&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=ISO-8859-1

 

[pauper]

Cobos tried that on the back of his famous vote (don't you remember the motorcade to Mendoza?) even with the hero worship afforded him at the time he could build nothing. He makes Ricardo Alfonsín look like an unstoppable supernova of charisma and political genius.

 

[Matiasba]

The truth isnt somewhere in the middle (Middle being say 15%). The unions are negotiating 25% pay increases so its definitely closer to that. INDECs manipulation is a total sham, and a waste of public money.

Who are these big bad capitalists? Why dont they have confidence in the country if things are that great? If things are so fantastic, why would they be pulling their money out. See you guys get taught that the reason the economy fails is because of capital outflow due to capitalists wanting to sabotage the economy. But, the real reason is the economy/country are a disaster and no one has the confidence to invest long term in it.

The way to turn it around is to foster confidence, be responsible, predictable, decrease inflation, reduce intervention. Chile has done it well. Argentina should be looking to them, rather than to Venezuela.

Look, the government, the State occupied by some political group, has an expiring date, and its totally dependent on peoples vote.
The corporations, on the contrary, have the same political and economical power, they control the country, but dont have any control of anybody of time or vote or whatever. The only control they have are the taxes, which they negotiate with the government and always win money even paying great amounts of taxes.
So they have lets say the same power as the government respecting of the country.
As we say in spanish "ellos tienen la manija" they have a lot of decision power of the destiny of the country (and they also have a lot of responsability that they dont assume). For example in 2001 this people won a lot while the country went down. They took the money out in spite of having a government that did everything they wanted. They just dont believe on the country, probably because we dont have any stability here, long term policies, etc. menemismo was the exact opposite of this government. The corralito was orientated the same way as the dollar cepo.
With the K, that they dont like, they gonna do it worst, if they can. They want a little (weak) state just to control it and manage it as they want, thats why they want privatizations or lower taxes or no money spended in social plans.
Lot of big nationals enterprizes were sold in the 90s, the majority to american capitals. so that make it even more difficult to the government to try to convince them to invest here. The majority are foreign capitals that dont have any duty with the country.

As I said these last 10 years allowed the State to make a bunch of dollars, just to prevent another crisis. I trully dont believe we are having another 2001 because now we have a stronger state, we have accumulated some reserves and we dont depend that much on this capitals. But they are very important in national economy, and they persist even when the K have gone or whoever comes, they are the owners of the country, and they dont believe. We dont have, unlike Chile and Brazil, a nationalist bourgeoisie, they are not nationalists, like you have for example in Cataluña, that they defend thier interests like if they were a nation.

Thats the main reason why these country collapses every 10 years, because the people who have the money, the power, resources, political and economical power, simply dont believe in this country, they dont invest, they empty it every 10 years. They are mostly new rich, they tend more to easy money bussiness, to financial bussiness, they dont stand for industry or development, its another paradigma.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Moreno would be good choice simply because the collapse would come sooner and we could get it over and done with.

Until the next one.

 

[camberiu]

We dont have, unlike Chile and Brazil, a nationalist bourgeoisie, they are not nationalists, l

Why I keep hearing this nonsense since my first day in Argentina? Where do you guys get this from? Brazilian entrepreneurs are no more 'nationalists' than their Argentinian counterparts. And they are just as rational. When Brazil was run like Argentina, with price controls, import controls, constant threats of nationalizations, erratic government and crazy government spending, they were not "nationalistic" either and did not invest. The day the Brazilian government began to operate within a semblance of sanity, the "nationalistic" spirit grew all of a sudden on those entrepreneurs and they started to invest in the country. It is almost magical the "nationalistic" effect that a stable, rational and sensible government can have on its bourgeoisie.

 

[Matiasba]

Why I keep hearing this nonsense since my first day in Argentina? Where do you guys get this from? Brazilian entrepreneurs are no more 'nationalists' than their Argentinian counterparts. And they are just as rational. When Brazil was run like Argentina, with price controls, import controls, constant threats of nationalizations, erratic government and crazy government spending, they were not "nationalistic" either and did not invest. The day the Brazilian government began to operate within a semblance of sanity, the "nationalistic" spirit grew all of a sudden on those entrepreneurs and they started to invest in the country. It is almost magical the "nationalistic" effect that a stable, rational and sensible government can have on its bourgeoisie.

The 1964 coup of Brazil had, as the same militaries governments of that period in Latam, the objective to create a national bourgeoisie.
They made it. Today you have in Brazil a lot of concentrated capitals FROM BRAZIL, that invest in Brazil. Brazil has a developed industry, much more than Argentina, that is a product of an alliance between capital and State, for long time, you have national industry, like planes, cars, etc. They even bought Burger King for god sake!! haha
Same with Chile, the chilean capitals are very nationalistic and grew a lot as a product of long term policies and economical stability. They are now expanding to Argentina, although they dont have pretty much a big industrial model, the service sector is much more developed than here, and unlike here they are too CHILEANS.
Only Argentina sold more than the half of their concentrated capitals, google "extranjerizacion del capital" and you ll see its not the same as Brazil or Chile.