Ignorance or bliss?

[darmanad]

By the way, Cavallo was a neo who studied at Harvard who followed FMI "suggestions" and that´s why the crisis was so deep. Wallstreet and FMI used to love him. In our experience, any time a politician is loved this is because they are ruling the country for them and they are destroying the economy. The K are critized a lot abroad because they are ruling for us, not for them. Fair enough for me...

Well, it is all about it. We have learnt that it will never be enough for those credit risk agencies because the way they measure the risk is a neo way. If we get a better score we commit suicide on the other hand.
And we think they are not reliable, so, I wonder, how is the US doing according to them. Is the US still the zero?
So, if we do what they expect we go into crisis.
And, anyway, credit will be expensive, but less expensive If we dont deal with them and FMI, as I asserted before, this is argentina.

In a former life, I used to manage the litigation of a large bank. It never ceased to amaze me how ingenious borrowers could be in manufacturing excuses why they could not keep their promise to repay a loan and why the bank was responsible for their business' failure. Sorry, but you won't find a sympathetic ear here.
Neither the USA nor the IMF selected Mr Cavallo to manage AR financial affairs. If I'm not mistaken, Pres. Menem did. If you want to lay the blame for AR fiscal mismanagement and defaults at the foot of anyone, then look inward. Stop trying to put the blame for the AR crisis on your lenders. They just gave you the money. You promised to return it and didn't. Period. Two suggestions in this regard: (1) Insist that your Police Dept begin to issue tickets to the weaving, speeding, tailgating drivers. The fines would quickly pay off the country's foreign debt; (2) Use eminent domain for urban renewal of the villas currently situated on prime real estate - the RE tax base would also fill govt coffers.

The Kirchners may have done a good job digging the country out of the hole it mismanged itself into. Nestor drove a hard bargain in 2005 with most all creditors (although curiously he opted to pay off the IMF 100%). Let's see what happens down the road when the AR social security/pension fund has been seriously depleted to pay for current operating expenses. I'm no economist, but I have a vague sense that Argentinians had better hope commodity prices rise, harvests are bountiful, England cedes the Falklands and humongous oil reserves are discovered offshore. Otherwise, I can see a lot of misery on the horizon.

The credit reporting agencies have in deed been exposed as fallible by virtue of their demonstrated incompetence leading up to the subprime credit bubble, but that does not justify discrediting all of their opinions. I'm no expert, but as far as I can tell, the international lending community still relies on the collective opinion/ratings formulated by them to set borrowing rates which is why Argentina will have to pay superhigh rates to borrow again.
I do not profess to be sufficiently sophisticated to appreciate the significance of the "neo" method of credit assessment, but I wonder why you claim that to satisfy the IMF lending criteria (usually issued at below market rates I believe), AR would have to commit financial suicide. Would that mean transparent fiscal management? Efficient tax collection? Exactly what was objectionable with IMF requirements?
Yes, I agree - this is Argentina....so what is the point? AR need not adhere to international fiscal standards?

 

[Lucas]

Bajo_cero2 this people really are not interested in the difficult times this country did go trough because of those IMF policies and these Chicago Boys mob, they wrecked and suck the life of this country for decades for their masters, and we all know very well who their are, they are desperate to get on the saddle again so they can continue the pillage not only of this country but all the sub-continent as well.

They, the ones who question you on every answer you are given them they are as the post heading said, ignorance or bliss? and I'll say ignorance for them will be bliss, let them to continue their reading of the same bullshit newspapers we have in this country which for decades played the excuser and apologizers for every dictatorship not only in this country but for all the South America subcontinent and always played against the countries financial and political interest.

And why do this happened and still happen?.....simple these media are controlled by external and foreign powers with they inserted 'testaferros' (front man), of course for a succulent price tag and political protection they installed (planted) in this country and managed externally, these useful condoms are demised after they been utilized, and to show what it's all about only a button is needed, in a press conference with and his how declaration the Buenos Aires city Mayor Mauricio Macri said the following, this useful idiot acknowledged that he did asked the Israelis and more prominent the American Embassy in BA to give their recommendation and approval for the head of the BA Metropolitan Police, in which Jorge Alberto 'Fino" Palacios position was approved (read well, he was given the tick of approval by the EE.UU embassy) with the posterior results that we all now know, spy services to watch and hear the opposition at his disposal, mini type of "BA-Gate", so if we have this kind of people asking to a foreign power for recommendations and approvals of key figures in a government and institutions, what we can expect if this clown do reach the presidency of this country?....better not to even think of this possibility.

 

[darmanad]

Bajo_cero2 this people really are not interested in the difficult times this country did go trough because of those IMF policies and these Chicago Boys mob, they wrecked and suck the life of this country for decades for their masters, and we all know very well who their are, they are desperate to get on the saddle again so they can continue the pillage not only of this country but all the sub-continent as well.

I care about the difficult times as this is an adopted country of mine. I would appreciate it if you could explain more to me.
1. What were the IMF policies that caused the difficult times?
2. Are you referring to the Chicago School of Economics - who exactly were the masters and who were their pawns that wrecked and sucked the life out of AR ?
3. What time frame?
4. What do you mean by "they are desperate to get on the saddle again so they can pillage...this country and ...all the sub-continent? Who wants to get on the saddle? How do they pillage?
Thanks in adavance.

 

[Lucas]

I care about the difficult times as this is an adopted country of mine. I would appreciate it if you could explain more to me.
1. What were the IMF policies that caused the difficult times?
2. Are you referring to the Chicago School of Economics - who exactly were the masters and who were their pawns that wrecked and sucked the life out of AR ?
3. What time frame?
4. What do you mean by "they are desperate to get on the saddle again so they can pillage...this country and ...all the sub-continent? Who wants to get on the saddle? How do they pillage?
Thanks in adavance.

Do you want your questions disclosed and analyzed point by point or a whole condensed answer will do?

...or put more succinctly

Do you are pulling my leg, right?

Bajo_cero2 had an immense and considerable patience with you guys/gals and I'm not.

When trying to explain very logic and straight forward over discussed, over analyzed on many conclusion reached questions over the past and actual troubles of this country to people who do not listen or do not want to put any effort to try to understand there is a limit or little of what one can do.

I'll put this to you in a simple way, here in this country there are local people even here in this forum, people that can not see more than the length of their noses even if you give them the more up to date glasses still lost and unaware of what they see is real and facts, they are in total denial, a situation in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead.

Explain things one, two or hundred times will not change their minds to be able to analyze a question o a problem not because they think they are right or wrong as any religion they know for sure they have the only truth there in the whole universe or they are only too hypocrites to recognize there could be an alternative to their analysis these people do not have the minimal interest to hear what you do have to say and any of your point of view are demised...are you one of those?

 

[perry]

Do you want your questions disclosed and analyzed point by point or a whole condensed answer will do?

...or put more succinctly

Do you are pulling my leg, right?

Bajo_cero2 had an immense and considerable patience with you guys/gals and I'm not.

When trying to explain very logic and straight forward over discussed, over analyzed on many conclusion reached questions over the past and actual troubles of this country to people who do not listen or do not want to put any effort to try to understand there is a limit or little of what one can do.

I'll put this to you in a simple way, here in this country there are local people even here in this forum, people that can not see more than the length of their noses even if you give them the more up to date glasses still lost and unaware of what they see is real and facts, they are in total denial, a situation in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead.

Explain things one, two or hundred times will not change their minds to be able to analyze a question o a problem not because they think they are right or wrong as any religion they know for sure they have the only truth there in the whole universe or they are only too hypocrites to recognize there could be an alternative to their analysis these people do not have the minimal interest to hear what you do have to say and any of your point of view are demised...are you one of those?

Good post Lucas and confirms my suspicions about people political motivations on this forum . It is glaringly obvious that many here have succintingly explained a point and then others try to change the topic by denying the answer or asking ridiculous questions and expecting a 10 point questionaire answer. Darmanad seems to be the most consistent in this manner .

They then post with glee their blindingly negative reports on Argentina copied and pasted by foreign newspapers that are so biased to be laughable .

The last few years in Argentina have been much better due to our international isolation . Selling our countries assets and soul has only ended in gloom and doom for millions every 5 years or so . This is their plan and is exactly their plan in the USA where they have indebted people up to their eyeballs and then destroyed them financially when they had could not pay the overinflated interest payments and loans offered by the same institutions. Currently we are seeing exactly the same pattern in the USA as we did before Argentinas crash in the year 2000 to 2003 . This is not natural and certainly planned with full intent . If people cannot see the wool from their eyes they are lost sheep .

There is no perfect government and there is corruption in every society . For me the worse corruption is one that involves going to war . If we look at this rationally Argentina is a rolemodel right now. There is absolutely no reason for the wars in IRAQ; AFGHANISTAN;YEMEN; PÂKISTAN and many other countries all caused and abbetted by corrupt policies.

 

[Climber]

ok guys, what is it all about? this tread was started with this statement:

The ridiculous Economy Minister Amado Boudou says "inflation only affects the mid and upper class".

Are you considering that statement true?
I am not, i think, it's all oposite.
Inflation affects the poorest class first.

 

[SaraSara]

ok guys, what is it all about? this tread was started with this statement:
Are you considering that statement true?
I am not, i think, it's all oposite.
Inflation affects the poorest class first.

One of the principles in advertising is to concentrate on misrepresenting and denying a product's weak points. No need to talk about its good points, as consumers already know them.

That's exactly what Boudou is doing: trying to distort an ugly truth. Remember that slogan in Orwell's l984: "War is peace"?

Of course the poor are the ones most affected by inflation: they have no reserves, no cushion to fall back upon when prices go out of sight.

 

[citygirl]

Good post Lucas and confirms my suspicions about people political motivations on this forum . It is glaringly obvious that many here have succintingly explained a point and then others try to change the topic by denying the answer or asking ridiculous questions and expecting a 10 point questionaire answer. Darmanad seems to be the most consistent in this manner .

They then post with glee their blindingly negative reports on Argentina copied and pasted by foreign newspapers that are so biased to be laughable .

The last few years in Argentina have been much better due to our international isolation . Selling our countries assets and soul has only ended in gloom and doom for millions every 5 years or so . This is their plan and is exactly their plan in the USA where they have indebted people up to their eyeballs and then destroyed them financially when they had could not pay the overinflated interest payments and loans offered by the same institutions. Currently we are seeing exactly the same pattern in the USA as we did before Argentinas crash in the year 2000 to 2003 . This is not natural and certainly planned with full intent . If people cannot see the wool from their eyes they are lost sheep .

There is no perfect government and there is corruption in every society . For me the worse corruption is one that involves going to war . If we look at this rationally Argentina is a rolemodel right now. There is absolutely no reason for the wars in IRAQ; AFGHANISTAN;YEMEN; PÂKISTAN and many other countries all caused and abbetted by corrupt policies.

With all respect Pericles,
1) Questioning someone's points when they are a little hard to follow isn't having a hidden agenda. I am fairly well-versed in economic theory and I'm struggling to understand some of the discussions - be it because of language confusion or subject confusion, I'm not sure.

2) We're discussing inflation in Argentina. Not the wars in other countries. One has NOTHING to do with the other.

3) For many of us who are business owners or managers, who have invested resources in this country, we have a serious interest in how the economy will do. So unlike some people's assertion that we're just sitting around, rubbing our hands with glee and hoping the economy crashes, we're actually trying to do things to improve it. And yes, it is a concern to us.

4) Come on - are we not allowed to call something bullshit when it looks like it, smells like it and feels like it? The INDEC numbers are a joke, inflation does affect all classes of people and it is becoming more and more of a serious issue. And despite assertions to the contrary on this, you can't just "keep raising prices and passing it on to your customers" indefinitely.

 

[Climber]

That's exactly what Boudou is doing: trying to distort an ugly truth.

Yeah or may be for him that inflation it's "normal" and consequently he doesn't try to improve it.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

In a former life, I used to manage the litigation of a large bank. It never ceased to amaze me how ingenious borrowers could be in manufacturing excuses why they could not keep their promise to repay a loan and why the bank was responsible for their business' failure. Sorry, but you won't find a sympathetic ear here.
Neither the USA nor the IMF selected Mr Cavallo to manage AR financial affairs. If I'm not mistaken, Pres. Menem did. If you want to lay the blame for AR fiscal mismanagement and defaults at the foot of anyone, then look inward. Stop trying to put the blame for the AR crisis on your lenders. They just gave you the money. You promised to return it and didn't. Period. Two suggestions in this regard:

You are confused. Nobody blames the money lenders. I just expained you that neos "magic solutions" don´t work here.

(1) Insist that your Police Dept begin to issue tickets to the weaving, speeding, tailgating drivers. The fines would quickly pay off the country's foreign debt;

Interesting, how much do you think they will get? 10 billions a year?

(2) Use eminent domain for urban renewal of the villas currently situated on prime real estate - the RE tax base would also fill govt coffers.

Again, how much are you imaginating they will get? Peanuts.
In fact, Cavallo applyed the neo doctrine in this country in the 90`so he:
1. Fired a lot os people who used to work for the state
2. Sold all the state`s companies: Steel (Siderar), Oil (YPF), trains, subways, electricity, phones and he created the private retirement insurances.

The point is, as I was explained you, that this country was financing himself printing money, using the public retirement founds and the state companies profits. So, after he destryed the free financing system, he realizes, ups, we cannot collect enough taxes.

So, during the 10 years when the neo school was used in this country, the debt rise double.

In fact, since 1949 to 1075 there was no debt and we have inflation from 20 to 300%.

So, how do you collect taxes when 60% of the economy evades them? His fantastic solution was to enact a decreto that only allow to cash salaries though banks.

You have ATM in the big cities, so good luck. A week later was the 20 of december 2001 crisis because 60% of the economy crashed.

So, we don´t need basic advices about neos school that are regarding ignorance.
The Kirchners may have done a good job digging the country out of the hole it mismanged itself into. Nestor drove a hard bargain in 2005 with most all creditors (although curiously he opted to pay off the IMF 100%).

Regarding ignorance, he paid 100% to FMI so then they weren´t creditors anymore. So then they have no reason to get involved anymore.

Because the big deal with FMI is that they lend money only if you take some suicidal mesures about your economy. Always regarding to cut expenditures in order to have more cash to pay. However, if you take too much milk from the cow, you kill it.

Let's see what happens down the road when the AR social security/pension fund has been seriously depleted to pay for current operating expenses.

Let´s see. This country used to finance for free with this founds. During the 90`s the neos created the private system. How did they invest those founds? They lend this money to....argentina at high rates. So, it was a scum. That´s why they estatizaron it.

I'm no economist, but I have a vague sense that Argentinians had better hope commodity prices rise, harvests are bountiful, England cedes the Falklands and humongous oil reserves are discovered offshore. Otherwise, I can see a lot of misery on the horizon.

Well, let´s see. You are not an economist. You have shown a huge ignorance about the topic you are talking about. Even a taxi driver has more knowledge than you. For example, any taxi driver knows about 2001 crisis, how restrictive monetary politics destroyed this country, etc, etc.

The credit reporting agencies have in deed been exposed as fallible by virtue of their demonstrated incompetence leading up to the subprime credit bubble, but that does not justify discrediting all of their opinions.

Let´s imagine you find your wife with the gardener in bed. Next time you go to work and the gardener arrives just when you are living, should you believe your wife that he is going to be busy with the flowers?

Those credit agencys has the US as zero risk. I know one thing, you won´t be my broker ever.

I'm no expert, but as far as I can tell, the international lending community still relies on the collective opinion/ratings formulated by them to set borrowing rates which is why Argentina will have to pay superhigh rates to borrow again.

Perhaps, but they also said that the exchange of argentinians bond were going to fail.

I do not profess to be sufficiently sophisticated to appreciate the significance of the "neo" method of credit assessment, but I wonder why you claim that to satisfy the IMF lending criteria (usually issued at below market rates I believe), AR would have to commit financial suicide. Would that mean transparent fiscal management? Efficient tax collection? Exactly what was objectionable with IMF requirements?
Yes, I agree - this is Argentina....so what is the point? AR need not adhere to international fiscal standards?

Well, you should google what happend with the countries that followed FMI criteria. All of them had huge crisis.

Let´s analisys it. The US was using the neo way. But they were cheating. Neo´s school is all about to cut expenditures. But the US spend a lot of money in the war industry. So, instead of spending state tax money in schools, hospitals, retirements insurances they spend it in war. So, it is blablabla that they don´t spend money, they have a huge industry financed by tax money.

When you use these ideas here but without war industry you destroy the creation of wealth, that´s why FMI is seen as a huge moskito that sucks blood until the cow is dead.

What is Keynes theory about? The state has to spend money building infraestructure and paying salaries because this push the whole economy.

So, the US, the only country where neos ideas suposed to work, is a lie. They, in fact, do what Keynes says but they invest in the war industry. Obama was trying to change it investing in free health insurances, education, etc, but he didn´t quit the wars and its huge expenditures.

But, please, let´s stop it here, I am very bored to deal with your agressive asserts based in your ignorance. So, if you have doubts regarding you lack of knowledge, be nicer and ask instead of accusing.
Regards