Cfk wins

[chris]

"An educated people would never elect a Rosas".
Domingo Faustino Sarmiento speaking of the Argentine caudillo who rose to become dictator of Argentina in 1829.

 

[esllou]

I have no doubt that cristina has been and will be as corrupt as they come while she's in office, giving back handers, giving hand ups to "friends", making a personal nest egg for the future, bending rules, giving false economic data, etc, etc.

I also have no doubt that any of the others standing for election would have done the same.

It's the system that's broken, not the actors.

 

[kre8ivelyXposed]

I ain't no economist but admittedly it is not surprising that a politician would win an election if people have "money in their pocket" to spend and an economy is allegedly growing at clipper rates (even if this economy is cyclical and without diversification). But I don't think I could ever vote in good conscience for a politician like Cristina whose personal wealth has increased so much during her reign/tenure. Now, that' s a rat!

 

[starlucia]

1) If you're working in negro, it's generally because your employer wants to avoid paying your taxes and doesn't usually imply any benefit to the employee. People in negro usually don't have a health plan through their employer, don't receive the 13th month salary, don't get sick pay and can be hired and fired at will. Of course, many of them go on to sue their employers when eventually fired, but this still doesn't make being "en negro" a particularly pleasant/beneficial experience. From what I've seen, most people en negro do either low-skill jobs, do not have a visa or work in one of the industries where being in negro is pretty common (I've seen a lot of people in negro working in publishing, journalism). I think most people aspire to be contracted employees (and reap the massive benefits of being a contracted employee that one gets here in Argentina

Depends on who you ask. I've also been told that a number of maids and unskilled workers prefer working en negro, because, as they are still "unemployed" on paper, are still eligible for government handouts. Que se yo.

 

[Johnny]

CFK reminds me a little of Ronnie Reagan. The deficits don't matter, she inspires much of the populace, and, if you ask many folks here in Argentina they will tell you that they are a lot better off today than eight years ago.

And, I'm only slightly kidding. Looking at Argentina's history over the past twenty years it's easy to see why she is so popular. Despite headwinds in the future, things are a lot more stable at present than they have been for a long time. It's easy for us expats to criticize but the Argentina political system bears little resemblance to the systems where many of us were raised. And, for all the criticizing, it's not like the rest of the world is basking in good times either.

 

[citygirl]

Well, there are quite a few who highly dispute the govt's numbers on both poverty and inflation so it is not as though Dani is the only one stating that.

Per the NYTimes in Feb '11: "The government’s official 10.9 percent inflation rate is less than half the estimate of private economists and firms like Ecolatina, which put inflation at 26.6 percent in a report last month. The official 12 percent number for poverty is also well below independent estimates of about 30 percent. "

And I hardly think it's breaking news or -the ranting of doomsdayers - that the peso has been propped up by the gov't and that several factors (including a planned changes in the real exchange rate) will probably lead to a decrease in the value. There's also a reason that those that have the ability to convert their pesos to other currencies do - and I'm not talking about locals.

I am certainly not a CFK supporter although I draw the line at personal attacks on her and yes, personally, I believe there were a lot of wasted opportunities to build a middle class, increase Argentina's presence in the international community, spawn succesful businesses and diversify the economy. And yes, I personally believe that 25 or 30% increases in salary/inflation isn't sustainable and at some point, the party is going to be over. The prediction is that the economy will only grow about 4% this year.

And it's not that I'm upset b/c I want an ipod or peanut butter It's because I live here, I manage businesses here, I have a partner who has businesses here and every day, it becomes a little bit more difficult from the increases in health insurance to the skyrocketing grocery prices (I paid 105 pesos for 1.5 kg of cheese at the supermarket in the provincia the other day) to the difficult business climate where a lot of businesses literally can't afford to put people en blanco but know they'll be sued if they don't, to the increases in salaries, etc, etc.

There are a lot of us that have concerns and dismissing all of them as typical short-sighted selfish expats is equally short-sighted.

 

[Napoleon]

One thing that you can say about Christina:

She kept Argentina out of a military conflict over the last 4 years.

Who was the last US President to do that?

 

[starlucia]

Let's assume for the sake of the argument that INDEC's figures are rubbery

"Rubbery?" But I don't understand how there's any room for argument in the inflation debate anymore? I've been saving every receipt and delivery menu I've received since July 2009, and the proof is right there, hard as a rock (over 100% price increases on many items.) I appreciated Miles' point about WHY they have to lie about inflation (as I hadn't known about the indexed bonds), but at this point, is there a single consumer in Argentina who doesn't agree that the INDEC figures are, in fact, nothing but a blatant, blatant lie? (Counting... it ain't hard.)

 

[ndcj]

Well, there are quite a few who highly dispute the govt's numbers on both poverty and inflation so it is not as though Dani is the only one stating that.

Per the NYTimes in Feb '11: "The government’s official 10.9 percent inflation rate is less than half the estimate of private economists and firms like Ecolatina, which put inflation at 26.6 percent in a report last month. The official 12 percent number for poverty is also well below independent estimates of about 30 percent. "

Right, the government has an incredibly strong incentive to dodgy up the numbers on inflation. INDEC's numbers are accurate to the extent that they are a correct calculation of the inputs used. The debate is whether the inputs legitimately reflect the inflation "on the street".

Inflation is a strange beast, and Argentina's inflation is particularly strange. Of course increased monetary supply drives up inflation, but there are other factors here too.

How, for instance, can meat be sold at Mercado Central for around 30% of the retail price in a local carniceria or supermercado? It defies basic common sense that the supply chain up until Mercado Central accounts for only 30% of the cost-to-market of meat for the retailer. Someone, post-Mercado Central, is making a very tidy profit in the name of inflation.

In any inflationary economy, there is huge profit taking by those with the power to demand higher prices. This is inflation, for sure, but it's not monetary supply based inflation.

Look at the external data on Argentina, not the local "independent" data, which is no more believable or independent than INDEC's data. The local "independent" data is politically driven just the same. The real numbers lie somewhere in the middle of the two sets.

And I hardly think it's breaking news or -the ranting of doomsdayers - that the peso has been propped up by the gov't and that several factors (including a planned changes in the real exchange rate) will probably lead to a decrease in the value. There's also a reason that those that have the ability to convert their pesos to other currencies do - and I'm not talking about locals.

The orderly devaluation of the peso will make Argentina's exports more competitive -- this is standard economic principle, the stronger your currency, the more difficult your exporters have it.

The deflation of the peso against the US dollar and Euro will make your holidays and imports more expensive. It will make Argentina's exporters more competitive and increase domestic economic growth. It's the proudly stated policy of this government to reduce imports through quotas, tariffs, import substitutions, etc., and it's working.

Poverty, while still disgustingly high, poverty is falling by any measure, as is income inequality. These are by any measure, including the UN and World Bank, falling faster than almost all of Argentina's peers.

I am certainly not a CFK supporter although I draw the line at personal attacks on her and yes, personally, I believe there were a lot of wasted opportunities to build a middle class, increase Argentina's presence in the international community, spawn succesful businesses and diversify the economy. And yes, I personally believe that 25 or 30% increases in salary/inflation isn't sustainable and at some point, the party is going to be over. The prediction is that the economy will only grow about 4% this year.

What makes you think that the current policies are not creating further diversity in the economy? Argentina recently exported more manufactured goods than agriculture for the first time in it's history.

The gap between rich and poor is decreasing at the same time national income is increasing. After the economic crisis in 2001, the richest 10% of Argentina took 40% of all income and the bottom 10% took 1.1%. In 2010 that has changed to 29% and 1.8% respectively. The absolute numbers vary depending on the source you use, but the trend is the same in every source. Isn't this the very definition of the creation of a "middle class"?

 

[Santiago F]

The gap between rich and poor is decreasing at the same time national income is increasing. After the economic crisis in 2001, the richest 10% of Argentina took 40% of all income and the bottom 10% took 1.1%. In 2010 that has changed to 29% and 1.8% respectively. The absolute numbers vary depending on the source you use, but the trend is the same in every source. Isn't this the very definition of the creation of a "middle class"?

Sorry, I just want to point out something (regardless of CFK and the like). We DO have a middle class. Sure, smaller than it should be, but we have it. We don't need to "create" a middle class, we need to "expand" the one we have. We have created a middle class a very long time ago, unlike other third world countries.

But then we should define what a "middle class" is, sure. Anyway, I am a member of the Argentine middle class, and almost all the people I know is.

Well, that is what I wanted to say. I may be wrong, or I may be naive, but I don't think so.