Cfk wins

[ndcj]

The idea isn't to compare Argentina with Argentina. Compare it to it's once weaker neighbors, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, who have blown past Argentina economically.

Thankfully, Argentina hasn't pursued economic policies that could only be described as "growth at any cost".

In spite of that, Argentina has a human development index (published by the UN Development Program) that is the fourth highest in the Americas (US, Canada and Chile take the top three, with Chile only just above Argentina. On an inequality adjusted basis, it's 5th, with Uruguay and Chile sitting very closely ahead.

Stopped by any of the less desirable places in Brazil lately? How has economic development worked out for the poor in Brazil?

On top of that, Argentina's GDP based on per capita purchasing power parity is the highest of any of its neighbours:

http://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...1477278000000&uniSize=0.035&iconSize=0.5&icfg

Some things just can't be disputed, Argentina is avoided like the plague by foreign investors because it is, factually, economically unstable.

Except that it hasn't. Foreign investment is at levels not seen in recent history in Argentina. Though obviously the government is likely to have a little trouble securing bond issues.

This does not mean there will be a major crash like 2002. But it does mean cuts in spending (entitlements) are inevitable as is the devaluation of the peso. How steep on both fronts will depend on commodity prices. We may see a 5:1 ratio at the end of 2012 or we may see a 6:1 before that. We can all just take our best guesses.

There doesn't seem to be many credible economists (baexpats members not withstanding) predicting an exchange rate of 6 pesos to the dollar by the end of 2012.

Here is the thing though, in an economy with a trade surplus, a weak currency is a very good thing for most purposes, assuming domestic inflation can ultimately be kept in check relative to the devaluation. Export taxes, whilst collected in pesos, are effectively valued in the same currency as the commodity (US dollars). This will ultimately give the government more of the domestic currency with which to fund their programs. The low level of foreign indebtedness means that the usual flip side of this, the increased expense of servicing external debt, is largely non existent.

 

[citygirl]

Foreign investment is at levels not seen in recent history in Argentina.

Recent as in compared to foreign investment in 2002? Argentina certainly lags behind its neighbors when it comes to foreign investment due to the restrictive business policies, high cost of doing business, unstable economic situation, onerous banking laws and inflation issues. Non-disputable. However, I am not one who will claim that foreign investment is the root to a country's success - while it is nice I certainly think a country builds from within.

Let me check the analyst reports and see what sources they site.

And yes, time will tell if the Kirchner plan was the right one.

 

[perry]

Since 2005 many expats have been predicting the demise of the Argentinian economy and now in 2011 it is stronger and more stable than in 20 years. There was the famous propagandist Gouchobob who revelled in any bad news about Argentina and made the wildest predictions like the peso will be 6 to 1 by 2009 , then 2010, then 2011 . Just because the dollar gives you 6 pesos does not make Argentina cheaper . The prices are what counts ,people seem to not have the simplest understanding of economics.

I agree inflation is a problem but I look at this as a cultural expectation as Argentinians are comfortable with this as long as growth and job prospects go hand in hand. Wages are at historic highs in many sectors and they are rising equally to inflation. I understand that many people are marginalised in this society due to living in villas miserias . I hope that Christina and the city government look into this problem seriously as government housing is an urgent priority.

I do have faith and believe that Christina is the best option for Argentina now . Her popularity seems very high and even taxi drivers now seem to love her!!

 

[ndcj]

Recent as in compared to foreign investment in 2002?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/foreign-direct-investment-net-bop-us-dollar-wb-data.html

Since at least late 70s if you ignore the bailout money.

 

[notebook.fix]

What makes you think that the current policies are not creating further diversity in the economy? Argentina recently exported more manufactured goods than agriculture for the first time in it's history.

Who gave you the 'figures'? Indec? The K's? Moyano? Election propaganda????

 

[notebook.fix]

Foreign investment is at levels not seen in recent history in Argentina. Though obviously the government is likely to have a little trouble securing bond issues.

Wow! yes agreed...everyone is running for the exits. Today I met three expats who are closing dow their businesses & getting out of here. Convince me that everyone wants to invest in Arg. I wish you were right.

 

[ndcj]

Who gave you the 'figures'? Indec? The K's? Moyano? Election propaganda????

Like I said:

I've misplaced the source in my bookmarks, and I don't remember with enough certainty exactly where the line was drawn between manufactured vs raw materials. I'll try and find it and post it, but until then I'll retract the claim because I can't back it up.

But...

Wow! yes agreed...everyone is heading for the exits. Today I met three expats who are closing dow their businesses & getting out of here. Convince me that everyone wants to invest in Arg. I wish you were right.

Wow, I know three blind mice, therefore all mice are blind. You see what I did there? Look at the links to (non-INDEC) statistics posted above about net foreign investment. Did you even bother to click the links?

It's obviously true that Argentina is a very difficult environment in which to do business, and it seems that a lot of expats get involved in business here with limited connections, limited knowledge of the local market conditions and the things that make Argentina unique (both good and bad).

Businesses fail every day, all over the world, not just in Argentina. Expat small businesses, I dare say, fail far more often than other small businesses. Here, there and everywhere else.

Also, I hate to say it but expat small businesses are a drop in the ocean of foreign investment flows.

 

[PhilipDT]

In spite of that, Argentina has a human development index (published by the UN Development Program) that is the fourth highest in the Americas (US, Canada and Chile take the top three, with Chile only just above Argentina.

Say what..?

 

[jb5]

Lets put our personal opinions aside and see what the world outside AR is saying. Please post all you can find, negative and positive. Credible sources only please.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-nyt-cant-find-anyone-to-say-anything-good-about-argentina-2011-10

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/wor...president-cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner.html

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8ce0bbe2-fe5e-11e0-bac4-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/10/24/bloomberg_articlesLTJXHY6JIJV2.DTL

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111024-709657.html

 

[davonz]

What makes you think that the current policies are not creating further diversity in the economy? Argentina recently exported more manufactured goods than agriculture for the first time in it's history.

It doesnt surprise me that arg is exporting more manufactured goods... arg use to be the 3rd biggest beef exporter, only brazil and australia exported more beef.. now where are they on the list ????

http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=beef-and-veal-meat&graph=exports

I believe these figured are from 2010, i had read that arg was now a net importer of beef !!!!!